This page had been maintained by Ekin Sarıyıldırım, Gökberk Bilgin
and Ipek Korkmaz as a part of the project studied during ECON
318 lecture at Bilkent University for the spring 2018 semester. All the
information gathered here are from external sources; we try to give the source
of information as much as we can.* The opinions expressed in this work are
solely unbiased analysis of the work rendered. This project explores the
possibility whether a “trading center” and/or “pricing location” for MED
(Mediterranean) diesel deliveries in Turkey is economically and technically
feasible. The exercise is based on the feasibility study of a trading center that is importing diesel either from the
East of Suez. As a practical and reliable approach, Jamnagar and Jubail are
taken as two reference points both with potential and keen to export diesel in
MED market. This is an interesting
exercise to conduct since in case of its application; it will increase the energy supply security of Turkey and could
create competitive advantage to the supplier counterparties. Additionally, the new
deals linked to this route could provide discounts on the diesel purchases, and Turkey may profit from the storage
facilities that are planned to construct. The information that is used here is valid by May 21, 2018.
TECHNICAL ASPECT
When the crude oil is
processed, it yields different products; diesel (or gasoil)
is also a product that has to be produced by the refineries through to the crude
oil processing. How
much each of these products produced is determined
by various factors such as the complexity of refineries, the type of crude oil refined
and the economy of the products in the market. The quality of these products
may differ as to the configuration of the
refineries change.
Even though there are some restrictions towards
the diesel consumption in European countries, the diesel demand will rather increase. Turkey is one of the largest importers of
diesel/gasoil in the global market. USA and Russia are the biggest exporting
countries, alongside
the other major players. India and Saudi Arabia are some of the major
suppliers for MED because of their refinery configuration, product
specifications and the proximity to the market. Thus, India’s and Saudi Arabia’s continuously increasing
refinery capacities can supply additional
volumes of ultra-low sulfur diesel that meets the Europe’s demand. As a result,
the volume of diesel/gasoil trade is growing. Turkey’s location and its local
demand could create a potential for the diesel/gasoil trade from the East of
Suez to Southern Europe to be carried via Turkey; Mersin port for our base
scenario.
Clean vessels (also known as
clean tankers) are the core part of the diesel/gasoil physical trade. The specification of a vessel depends on many different factors,
such as the distance between the trading
locations and cargo size. These vessels usually move on specific trade routes.Our project’s main focus is the
diesel/gasoil trade from the East of Suez to MED via Mersin, Turkey, we have analyzed the cost of a diesel/gasoil vessel for two cases; the vessel stops either at
Mersin Port, or direct shipping to the
consumption location i.e. Southern Europe. For our calculations, it is worth bearing
in mind that we use some certain methodology and assumptions.
To calculate a vessel’s voyage cost,
some assumptions have been made. Suez Canal
Cost is added for the routes that are starting from
India or Saudi Arabia since for the
vessel to arrive at Mersin, it must pass the Suez Canal. We are further
assuming that the diesel/gasoil is staying in the storage facility, in port
of Mersin,
according to the demand of the importing countries.
To understand
whether this operation is feasible or not, we have developed several
scenarios. We have simulated how a trade would be profitable if
there was a diesel/gasoil storage area in Mersin. In one of our simulations, we have assumed that Turkish state
will have a diesel/gasoil storage facility and they will re-export to Europe
during contango periods. Our findings showed that due to the price differences
between Arabian Gulf and Mediterranian if
Turkey sells with current prices, it might
face losses. However, in the long-run, if
Turkey can become a trading and price reference point for the region, it will
have the power to price the products
according to regional demand.
In the second analysis, we have assumed that the storage facility
belongs to either India or Saudi Arabia, or both of them. We have checked the
average trade to each European country from India and Saudi Arabia. In the case where India owns the storage, our
findings showed that by increasing the diesel/gasoil amount that is supplied to Turkey, a storage facility could be
operated and the stored diesel/gasoil can meet the demands of France
with a more profitable way and the transportation time will reduce 66%. If the aforementioned case is not profitable and
European countries do not choose to buy from Mersin, the stored diesel/gasoil can
be used domestically as well.
Overall, the
results show that main issue of becoming a hub is understanding the pricing mechanism
and finding a way to control it in order to
gain profit. Transportation and storage are also essential elements. Since the diesel/gasoil producers and transporters are not from the same company
or same country, building a model where every party involved win is pretty
hard.
In our simulation,
we have used both spot prices and forward curvess separately. Also, even though
we have assumed countries to own the storage facilities; in real life, private
companies and traders own them. Therefore, our results may differ from the real
numbers. However, we believe that they are sufficient to understand whether
building and operating a storage facility in Mersin is feasible or not.
CONCLUSION
The
competition for the diesel/gasoil market in MED is getting more eminent among
the major suppliers. As a part of this competition, it is known that
countries like India
and Saudi Arabia are enhancing their refining capacity in order to produce more
diesel/gasoil that can target MED,
particularly Southern Europe and Turkey. With Turkey
being one of the countries with the fastest growing diesel/gasoil demand, Turkey becomes a feasible partner for those countries in
their physical trade of diesel/gasoil to MED. The main challenge in this
competetion against NWE or US is that East of Suez cargoes have to pass
throught Suez Canal. This could cause additional
cost for the cargoes, as well as, delays in voyage times
due to Suez Canal’s heavy traffic.
A
diesel/gasoil storage facility in Mersin seems to be a feasible solution for
these third parties. However, it is important that these countries would have
the ownership of these facilities both in investment and operatorship. This is
critical for two main reasons; firstly, the cost of this facility has to be
covered by the suppliers which are having the majority share of the profit in
this physical trading. Secondly, their operatorship could avoid conflict of
interests among the Turkish local market as none of these countries have a
direct investor in Turkish domestic diesel/gasoil market. As this storage facility is thought to be a
free-zone, so out of Turkish customs zone, then this would make the economics
of this business model work.
Our findings
showed that due to the price differences between Arabian Gulf and Mediterranian if Turkey sells with current prices, it will face losses. However, in the long-run, if Turkey can become a hub for the
region, it will have the power to price
the products according to its interest. Also, becoming a reliable ally for the
energy transportation security, Turkey may increase its political power on the
Eastern Mediterranian, and in the future, it can be a part of the alternative
energy corridor projects. In either case, Turkey’s strong diesel/gasoil demand
and its location creates a good opportunity for Turkey.
In the case where India,
one of the potential suppliers, owns the storage, our findings showed that by
increasing the diesel/gasoil amount that is supplied to Turkey, a storage facility could be operated and the
stored diesel/gasoil can
meet the demands of France
with a more profitable way and the transportation time
will reduce 66%. If the aforementioned case
is not profitable and European countries do not choose to buy from Mersin, the
stored diesel/gasoil can be used domestically as well. The
main purpose of the Mersin diesel/gasoil storage facility is to provide a
promixity to MED market for the East of Suez suppliers
(i.e., Saudi Arabia & India) that they can have a quick access in the OTC
diesel/gasoil market. Especially in contango periods, the storage facility
could create a vital competitive advantage as an oppose to floating storage
operations which are much more expensive than onshore storage options.
The outcome of
the work still relies on much deeper analysis in order to calculate optimum
storage capacity (i.e., Lavera) needed in
Mersin, the average storage fees would apply, the terms for stored
diesel/gasoil could get in Turkish market and the freight economics between Mersin to
Southern Europe which is very limited at the moment. The
capabilities of the participants of these projects are naturally limited to
make these highly complex analysis and calculations. These analysis need to be
done with more data, and in collaboration with counterparties, preferably from
any of the supplier countries, India or Saudi Arabia.
This is also important to understand the business expectations from the suppliers so
that whole project could be mutually profitable. Some of the data such as freight rates are needed for the analysis of this project however
the relevant data could not be found as it is expensive to purchase. This is
another important reason why this project needs to be completed in a much
higher level.
Conclusively,
a diesel/gasoil storage facility for East of Suez products to re-export to MED
sounds like a feasible idea. This could also yield a benchmark price for
Eastern Mediterranean diesel/gasoil market which has a totally different market
dynamics comparing to West Mediterranean. This will be another gain for the
regional countries, especially Turkey, to set their own benchmark prices that
could meet the regional needs. A system that can help East of Suez suppliers (i.e.,
Saudi Arabia & India) that they can by-pass Suez traffic in
sudden high demand periods, which are generally OTC environment, is accepted to
have a good potential and it is worth having deeper analysis.
Disclaimer: There are some certain, and necessary assumptions have been made throughout the cost calculation process. We were not able to gather data from some sources, such as World Scale Index. We are taking the vessel Aframax as 70,000 DWT. However, it can be up to 100,000 DWT. We do not have diesel forward curve prices for the second month and onwards, so we have estimated by using the spot and one month forward prices. Mersin port costsare overall estimated numbers. They do not represent the true values.
1. Crude Oil
Crude oil is the source of all petroleum products.
Crude oil is classified based on physical characteristics and chemical composition,
using terms such as “light” or “heavy” as well as “sweet” or “sour”. “American
Petroleum Institute (API) gravity is the conventional way of measuring how
heavy or dense a given stream of crude is.” “Crude oil with a low API
gravity is considered as a heavy crude oil and typically has a larger
yield of lower-valued products.”
Crude can also be classified according to
its sulfur content.
Crude oil with low sulfur content is classified as “sweet”, crude oil with a
higher sulfur content is classified as
“sour.” Sulfur content is considered as an
undesirable characteristic with respect to
both processing and end-product quality. Therefore, sweet crude is typically
more desirable and valuable than sour crude. Crude oil varies in price,
usefulness, and environmental impact.
When the crude oil is processed, there
are some specific products that will be
obtained from that specific crude oil (this depends on the natural
quality of the crude oil). Thus, crude oil yield means, depending on the
quality of the crude oil, the high or low valued products obtained as an outcome of the processing. In
this case, same oil may have different
“crude oil yield” for different refineries.
1.1. Crude Oil Processing
Figure 1: Crude Oil Distillates
Lighter crude has a higher percentage of light
hydrocarbons that can be recovered with simple distillation at a refinery.Heavy crude has density approaching or even
exceeding that of water. Usually, heavy
crude requires extra refining to produce more valuable and in-demand products. https://www.thebalance.com/the-basics-of-crude-oil-classification-1182570
Fundamentals of Crude Oil Classification:
1) API gravity measures the density of crude oils.
2) Sulfur content measures the degree of
pureness of crude oil, the level of impurity that each crude oil type contains.
3) Sulfur content higher than 0.5% indicates a
high level of impurity (sour crude oil) that has to be removed.
4) Sulfur content lower than 0.5% implies a low level of impurity
(sweet crude oil).
Due to
the technical points mentioned above, different crude types produce the
products in different yields and quality. Example tables below can be analyzed
to see how the yields of products could change by crude grade, refinery
configuration or region:
Table 1: Arabian
Crude Straight Run Product Streams
Light |
Medium |
Heavy |
|
Crude, °API |
38,80 |
30,70 |
28,20 |
Sulfur, % wt |
1,10 |
2,51 |
2,84 |
Light Naphtha |
|||
Cut range, °F |
68-212 |
68-212 |
68-212 |
Yield, % vol |
10,5 |
9,4 |
7,9 |
Gravity, °API |
77,4 |
78,4 |
80,1 |
Sulfur, % wt |
0,056 |
0,007 |
0,0028 |
RVP, Psi |
6,9 |
7,9 |
10,2 |
Paraffins, % vol |
87,4 |
89,7 |
89,6 |
Naphthenes, % vol |
10,7 |
8,8 |
9,5 |
Aromatics, % vol |
1,9 |
1,5 |
0,9 |
RON clear |
54,7 |
48,2 |
58,7 |
Heavy Naphtha |
|||
Cut range, °F |
212-302 |
212-302 |
212-302 |
Yield, % vol |
9,4 |
7,4 |
6,8 |
Gravity, °API |
58,8 |
59,6 |
60,6 |
Sulfur, % wt |
0,057 |
0,019 |
0,018 |
Paraffins, % vol |
66,3 |
67,8 |
70,3 |
Naphthenes, % vol |
20 |
20,8 |
21,4 |
Aromatics, % vol |
13,7 |
11,4 |
8,3 |
Kerosene |
|||
Cut range, °F |
302-455 |
302-455 |
302-455 |
Yield, % vol |
18,4 |
13,5 |
12,5 |
Gravity, °API |
48 |
48,9 |
48,3 |
Sulfur, % wt |
0,092 |
0,12 |
0,19 |
Paraffins, % vol |
58,9 |
59,9 |
58 |
Naphthenes, % vol |
20,5 |
21,9 |
23,7 |
Aromatics, % vol |
20,6 |
18,2 |
18,3 |
Freeze Point, °F |
-67 |
-72 |
-84 |
Smoke Point, mm |
26 |
23 |
26 |
Luminometer no. |
57 |
55 |
60 |
Aniline Point, °F |
133 |
139 |
138 |
Kin cSt at -30 °F |
5,09 |
4,63 |
4,74 |
Kin cSt at 100 °F |
1,13 |
1,09 |
1,12 |
Light Gas Oil |
|||
Cut range, °F |
455-650 |
455-650 |
455-650 |
Yield, % vol |
21,1 |
17,4 |
16,4 |
Gravity, °API |
37,3 |
37,2 |
35,8 |
Sulfur, % wt |
0,81 |
1,09 |
1,38 |
Pour Point, °F |
10 |
0 |
5 |
Aniline Point, °F |
166 |
156 |
156 |
Kin cSt at 100 °F |
3,34 |
3,15 |
3,65 |
Kin cSt at 210 °F |
1,32 |
1,22 |
1,4 |
Heavy Gas Oil |
|||
Cut range, °F |
650-1049 |
650-1049 |
650-1049 |
Yield, % vol |
30,6 |
30,5 |
26,3 |
Gravity, °API |
24,8 |
322 |
21,8 |
Sulfur, % wt |
1,79 |
2,87 |
2,88 |
Pour Point, °F |
100 |
75 |
90 |
Aniline Point, °F |
195 |
172 |
172 |
Kin cSt at 100 °F |
49 |
62,2 |
62,5 |
Kin cSt at 210 °F |
65,65 |
7,25 |
7,05 |
Atmosferic
residue |
|||
Cut range, °F |
650+ |
650+ |
650+ |
Yield, % vol |
38 |
50 |
53,1 |
Gravity, °API |
21,7 |
14,4 |
12,3 |
Sulfur, % wt |
2,04 |
4,12 |
4,35 |
Pour Point, °F |
75 |
55 |
55 |
Con Carb. %wt |
4,5 |
10 |
13,2 |
Kin cSt at 100 °F |
146 |
1570 |
5400 |
Kin cSt at 210 °F |
12,4 |
54 |
106 |
Vacuum Residue |
|||
Cut range, °F |
1049+ |
1049+ |
1049+ |
Yield, % vol |
7,4 |
19,5 |
26,8 |
Gravity, °API |
11,5 |
3,8 |
4 |
Sulfur, % wt |
3 |
5,85 |
5,6 |
Pour Point, °F |
80 |
120 |
120 |
Con Carb. %wt |
19 |
22,8 |
12,4 |
Kin cSt at 210 °F |
392 |
19335 |
13400 |
Source: Handbook of Petroleum Processing
Table 2: Typical Products Made from a
42-Gallon Barrel of Refined Crude Oil in the U.S.
Products |
Amount |
Asphalt |
3% |
Liquefied Petroleum |
4% |
Jet Fuel |
10% |
Other Products |
18% |
Diesel Fuel & Heating Oil |
23% |
Gasoline |
47% |
Source: Canary USA (Other products (the 18%) include
chemical feedstocks (for plastics, fertilizers
etc.), lubricants.)
Table
3:
Mediterranean Crude Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration
Mediterranean
Yields |
||||
Harmonized
System |
Harmonized
System |
High conversion
VGO hydrocracker/Visbreaker |
High conversion
VGO hydrocracker/Visbreaker |
|
Volume % Yield |
Es Sider |
Urals |
Es Sider |
Urals |
LPG |
2,37% |
4,41% |
3,96% |
5,75% |
Gasoline |
19,27% |
13,06% |
23,65% |
19,97% |
Naphtha |
0,00% |
0,00% |
0,00% |
0,00% |
Kerosene |
7,37% |
7,60% |
13,67% |
14,04% |
Diesel |
31,90% |
30,10% |
40,74% |
42,80% |
HSFO |
0,00% |
41,85% |
0,00% |
16,34% |
LSFO |
35,74% |
0,00% |
15,01% |
0,00% |
Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products
Table
4: NWE Crude
Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration
North West
European Yields |
||||
Harmonized System |
Harmonized System |
Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker |
Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker |
|
Volume % Yield |
Brent |
Urals |
Brent |
Urals |
LPG |
4,14% |
4,41% |
6,42% |
6,41% |
Gasoline |
20,85% |
13,06% |
34,60% |
27,11% |
Naphtha |
0,00% |
0,00% |
0,00% |
0,00% |
Kerosene |
7,29% |
7,60% |
13,40% |
9,18% |
Diesel |
32,31% |
30,10% |
34,03% |
37,24% |
HSFO |
0,00% |
41,85% |
0,00% |
17,53% |
LSFO |
32,00% |
0,00% |
8,99% |
0,00% |
Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products
Table
5: Singapore
Crude Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration
Singapore
Yields |
||||
Harmonized System |
Harmonized System |
Harmonized System/ Fluid Catalytic
Cracker+Visbreaker |
Harmonized System/ Fluid Catalytic
Cracker+Visbreaker |
|
Volume
% Yield |
Dubai |
Tapis |
Dubai |
Tapis |
LPG |
2,52% |
1,77% |
4,10% |
4,14% |
Gasoline |
10,05% |
17,02% |
19,52% |
26,04% |
Naphtha |
6,50% |
6,08% |
6,50% |
6,08% |
Kerosene |
12,41% |
20,99% |
13,46% |
23,42% |
Diesel |
22,98% |
28,93% |
37,44% |
36,79% |
HSFO |
42,26% |
0,00% |
15,63% |
0,00% |
LSFO |
0,00% |
21,22% |
0,00% |
0,37% |
Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products
Figure 2: Stages of Crude Oil Refinery Process
VIDEO: Refining is the transformation operation
allowing us to obtain many products that market demands. Depending on the crude
oil’s quality, four main operations are
done to process crude oil. These are; separation,
conversion, improvement and mixing. The crude oil is processed in the distillation oven which the
petroleum products have different boiling temperatures from lightest on the top
and the heaviest on the bottom. The lightest is
LPG (butane and propane), and then comes petrol (for an automobile) and naphtha. From naphtha’s processing, we obtain
olefins and aromatics. On the bottom, we obtain kerosene (aircraft fuel and
domestic heating fuel) and then comes diesel (for diesel engines). Lastly, we
obtain paraffin, lubricating oils, and heavy fuels (production of industrial
heat).
Diesel/gasoil is a type
of middle distillate fuel (light, middle and heavy distillates
have different characteristics where their functions and markets are also
different).
“Diesel fuel is more efficient than
gasoline because it contains 10% more energy per gallon than gasoline.” However, there arefew kinds of diesel/gasoil
fuel. Just as gasoline is rated by its octane,
diesel fuel is rated by its cetane, which indicates how easy
it is to ignite and how fast it burns.
2.1. Main Usage of Diesel
Table 6: Key Consuming Sectors of Diesel Sector-Wise Diesel
Consumption in USA, 2016
|
||||||
KEY CONSUMING SECTORS OF
DIESEL |
||||||
SECTOR-WISE DIESEL
CONSUMPTION (USA) |
||||||
Name of the sector |
Diesel consumption |
|||||
Trucks |
27.8% |
|||||
Agriculture |
12.2% |
|||||
Personal SUVs and cars |
12.1% |
|||||
Buses |
9.9% |
|||||
Commercial taxis |
8.3% |
|||||
Three wheelers |
6.2% |
|||||
Industry |
6.2% |
|
||||
Generation sets |
3.9% |
|||||
Railways |
3.8% |
Bulk |
||||
Mobile towers |
1.7% |
consumers |
||||
Aviation and shipping |
0.8% |
|||||
Others |
7.1% |
|||||
Source: Parasadenwala
3. Trade for diesel/gasoil
The following data is derived by using Joint Organizations Data
Initiative (JODI). In consumption calculation, stock changes are also included. All tables are ordered according to highest 2017H2 values.
Table 7: Major
Output in Diesel (Thousand Barrels)
Total Diesel Output (Thousand Barrels) |
||||
Country Name |
H1 2016 |
H22016 |
H12017 |
H22017 |
United States
of America |
144,814 |
152,221 |
146,724 |
151,222 |
China |
104,318 |
108,709 |
107,839 |
113,181 |
India |
62,445 |
64,692 |
64,247 |
70,631 |
Russian
Federation |
46,457 |
47,872 |
47,007 |
48,370 |
Saudi Arabia |
32,397 |
31,525 |
31,687 |
33,777 |
Germany |
27,918 |
29,239 |
27,452 |
29,536 |
Korea |
28,169 |
28,724 |
28,491 |
29,488 |
Japan |
27,613 |
28,720 |
27,650 |
29,225 |
Canada |
17,901 |
18,573 |
19,760 |
20,649 |
Italy |
19,180 |
21,100 |
19,042 |
17,582 |
France |
14,780 |
17,425 |
15,498 |
17,195 |
Spain |
15,841 |
17,240 |
16,580 |
17,174 |
United Kingdom |
11,890 |
13,503 |
12,410 |
12,862 |
Netherlands |
11,978 |
11,776 |
12,267 |
11,473 |
Belgium |
7,900 |
7,349 |
7,572 |
8,386 |
Source: JODI Database
Table
8: Major Diesel Importers (Thousand Barrels)
Total Diesel Importers (Thousand Barrels) |
||||
Country Name |
H1 2016 |
H22016 |
H12017 |
H22017 |
France |
13,539 |
13,224 |
13,524 |
13,236 |
Germany |
12,721 |
11,123 |
12,475 |
11,331 |
Netherlands |
11,586 |
11,585 |
10,903 |
10,801 |
Turkey |
8,046 |
7,905 |
7,364 |
10,432 |
United Kingdom |
10,153 |
9,557 |
8,895 |
9,530 |
Singapore |
9,872 |
9,493 |
8,609 |
8,579 |
Belgium |
7,237 |
6,619 |
6,720 |
6,325 |
United States
of America |
5,533 |
4,976 |
4,755 |
4,508 |
Italy |
2,993 |
2,909 |
4,228 |
3,103 |
Spain |
3,300 |
2,570 |
3,296 |
2,805 |
Saudi Arabia |
6,058 |
7,289 |
3,424 |
2,009 |
Greece |
621 |
790 |
617 |
814 |
Canada |
1,054 |
786 |
810 |
808 |
Bulgaria |
492 |
675 |
620 |
592 |
India |
1,076 |
129 |
1,334 |
418 |
Source: JODI Database
Table
9: Major Diesel Exporting Countries in the World
(Thousand Barrels)
Total Diesel
Expors (Thousand Barrels) |
||||
Country Name |
H1 2016 |
H22016 |
H12017 |
H22017 |
United States of America |
35,798 |
36,480 |
40,055 |
43,959 |
Russian Federation |
31,465 |
28,291 |
33,173 |
24,377 |
Saudi Arabia |
17,568 |
17,310 |
16,469 |
20,317 |
India |
15,699 |
18,446 |
15,855 |
20,286 |
Netherlands |
18,389 |
18,742 |
18,770 |
18,465 |
Singapore |
14,621 |
15,211 |
15,012 |
15,497 |
Korea |
14,435 |
14,763 |
14,196 |
15,100 |
China |
7,911 |
10,618 |
9,605 |
11,181 |
Belgium |
7,258 |
7,231 |
7,504 |
7,857 |
Japan |
4,928 |
5,344 |
4,685 |
6,220 |
Italy |
5,456 |
6,235 |
6,039 |
6,089 |
Germany |
5,743 |
6,036 |
5,655 |
5,714 |
Spain |
2,535 |
4,024 |
3,666 |
4,452 |
Greece |
4,358 |
4,773 |
4,778 |
4,088 |
Canada |
4,816 |
3,592 |
5,087 |
4,045 |
Source: JODI Database
Table 10: Major Diesel Consumers in the World (Thousand
Barrels)
Major Diesel
Consumers (Thousand Barrels) |
|||||||||
Country Name |
H12016 |
H12016/Per Capita |
H22016 |
H22016/Per Capita |
H12017 |
H12017/Per Capita |
H22017 |
H22017/Per Capita |
Population |
United States of America |
112,622 |
0.035% |
123,438 |
0.038% |
109,008 |
0.033% |
107,204 |
0.033% |
325.7 |
China |
97,558 |
0.007% |
96,516 |
0.007% |
99,057 |
0.007% |
102,029 |
0.007% |
1,379 |
India |
47,945 |
0.004% |
46,627 |
0.004% |
49,677 |
0.004% |
50,390 |
0.004% |
1,324 |
Germany |
35,710 |
0.043% |
34,070 |
0.041% |
33,526 |
0.041% |
34,566 |
0.042% |
82.67 |
France |
26,980 |
0.040% |
29,827 |
0.045% |
27,304 |
0.041% |
28,804 |
0.043% |
66.90 |
Russian Federation |
15,241 |
0.011% |
19,705 |
0.014% |
14,083 |
0.010% |
23,868 |
0.017% |
144.30 |
Japan |
22,885 |
0.018% |
23,633 |
0.019% |
23,232 |
0.018% |
23,075 |
0.018% |
127.00 |
United Kingdom |
18,946 |
0.029% |
20,250 |
0.031% |
18,997 |
0.029% |
19,882 |
0.030% |
65.64 |
Canada |
13,563 |
0.037% |
15,999 |
0.044% |
15,495 |
0.043% |
17,331 |
0.048% |
36.29 |
Turkey |
13,637 |
0.017% |
14,499 |
0.018% |
14,018 |
0.018% |
16,678 |
0.021% |
79.51 |
Spain |
16,801 |
0.037% |
15,245 |
0.033% |
15,896 |
0.035% |
15,215 |
0.033% |
45.56 |
Saudi Arabia |
20,459 |
0.063% |
22,182 |
0.069% |
18,730 |
0.058% |
15,153 |
0.047% |
32.28 |
Italy |
17,063 |
0.028% |
18,086 |
0.030% |
17,823 |
0.029% |
14,491 |
0.024% |
60.60 |
Korea |
13,941 |
0.027% |
13,715 |
0.027% |
14,668 |
0.029% |
14,391 |
0.028% |
51.25 |
Belgium |
8,103 |
0.071% |
6,088 |
0.054% |
6,134 |
0.054% |
6,329 |
0.056% |
11.35 |
Source: JODI Database
3.1 Major Players in Diesel Market
This section provides information for the
countries that are the main players in
the diesel market. To show an example, we
started with Russian Federation. We have managed to collect every information
we gather so far to have a better understanding. We intend to expand this
analysis to every country that is relevant to this project. To the best of our
knowledge on the topic improves we will update each section and at the end, we hope that this study will help on
deciding whether Turkey can play a better
role in this market or not.
3.1.1 Russian Federation
Figure
3: Overall Refineries in Russian
Federation
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Russian Federation was the largest diesel
exporter for Europe in 2017. Above m where the Russian refineries are located. Names of those refineries and their
capacities can be found in Appendix A. Highlighted refineries in the
appendix are the largest Euro 5 standard diesel suppliers. Below can also be found
the locations of the 13 largest refineries (more than 200,000 bpd) to understand the density of the regions.
Figure 4: Most Productive Refineries in
Russian Federation
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Trade
partners of the Russian Federation can be seen
in the following map. For more information, please
check the table in Appendix B.
Figure 5: Russian Diesel Exports
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
The Russian diesel/gasoil export ports are shown in the following table. According to
these results, both the Black Sea and Baltic Sea have almost equal
importance.
Table 11: Russian Diesel Exports by Ports
in 2017
Russian
Diesel Exports by Sea in 2017 (Million Barrels) |
||||||||||
Black Sea |
Baltic Sea |
Barents
Sea |
||||||||
|
Total Exp. |
Share in Total |
|
Total Exp. |
Share in Total |
|
Total Exp. |
Share in Total |
||
Novorossiysk |
59.01 |
25,81% |
Primorsk |
72.46 |
31,65% |
Murmansk |
3.28 |
1,43% |
||
Tuapse |
40.52 |
17,70% |
Vysotsk |
24.88 |
10,87% |
|
||||
Kavkaz |
6.26 |
2,73% |
St.Petersburg |
12.01 |
5,24% |
|
||||
Taman |
2.20 |
0,96% |
Ust-Luga |
3.47 |
1,52% |
|
||||
Azov |
0.61 |
0,27% |
Baltiysk |
2.76 |
1,20% |
|
||||
Rostov-on-Don |
0.23 |
0,10% |
Kaliningrad |
0.95 |
0,41% |
|
||||
Taganrog |
0.13 |
0,06% |
|
|
||||||
Temryuk |
0.07 |
0,03% |
|
|
||||||
Volgograd |
0.04 |
0,02% |
|
|
||||||
Total |
109.15 |
47,67% |
Total |
116.52 |
50,89% |
Total |
3.28 |
1,43% |
||
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Also since Russia has a rough climate, we have checked
whether there is any seasonality in diesel/gasoil loadings due to weather
conditions. The results show that there are no significant limitations.
Figure 6: Russian
Diesel/Gasoil Exports by Months in 2017 (Thousand Barrels/day)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 12: Diesel/Gasoil Exports of India By
Ports In 2017
Diesel/Gasil
Export of India By Ports in 2017 (In Million Barrels) |
||
Port Name |
Total
Exports |
Share in
Total |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
33.6 |
96,72% |
Vadinar |
1.14 |
3,28% |
Total |
34.7 |
100,00% |
Source: Eikon
3.1.3 Netherlands
Figure 9:
Refineries in Netherlands
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Figure 10: Netherlands
Diesel/Gasoil Imports in 2017
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure 11: Netherlands
Diesel/Gasoil Exports in 2017
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
Table 13: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Imports
by Ports in 2017
Dutch
Diesel Imports by Ports 2017 (Million Barrels/day) |
||
|
Total
Imports |
Share in
Total |
Rotterdam |
40.80 |
52,79% |
Amsterdam |
34.25 |
44,33% |
Vlissingen |
1.80 |
2,32% |
Terneuzen |
0.36 |
0,46% |
Moerdijk |
0.051 |
0,07% |
Dordrecht |
0.020 |
0,03% |
TOTAL |
77.26 |
100,00% |
Source: Eikon
Table 14: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Exports
by Ports in 2017
Dutch Diesel Exports by
Ports 2017 (Million Barrels/day) |
||
|
Total Exports |
Share in Total |
Rotterdam |
41.5 |
69,38% |
Amsterdam |
17.79 |
29,74% |
Vlissingen |
0.41 |
0,70% |
Terneuzen |
0.059 |
0,10% |
Sluiskil |
0.041 |
0,07% |
Delfzijl |
0.009 |
0,02% |
TOTAL |
59.81 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
3.1.4 Turkey
Diesel suppliers to Turkey in 2017 is shown in below map. For
the details, please check Appendix C.
Figure 12: Diesel Imports of Turkey in 2017
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 15: Russian Diesel Exports to Turkey
by Ports in 2017
Russia Diesel Exports to
Turkey by Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name |
Total
Exports |
Region |
Novorossiysk |
23.65 |
Black Sea |
Tuapse |
6.30 |
Black Sea |
Kavkaz |
1.15 |
Black Sea |
Taman |
0.75 |
Black Sea |
Azov |
0.18 |
Black Sea |
Rostov-on-Don |
0.05 |
Black Sea |
Volgograd |
0.04 |
Black Sea |
Total |
32.14 |
Black Sea |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 16: Diesel/Gasoil Imported from
Russia by Discharge Ports in 2017
Diesel/Gasoil Imported from Russia By
Discharge Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name (Turkey) |
Total
Imports |
Share
in Total |
Marmara Ereğlisi |
7.35 |
23% |
Gebze |
5.47 |
17% |
Samsun |
4.18 |
13% |
Tutuncifilik |
3.70 |
12% |
Aliaga |
2.95 |
9% |
Trabzon |
2.28 |
7% |
Mersin |
2.26 |
7% |
Antalya |
0.87 |
3% |
Yarimca |
0.65 |
2% |
Toros Terminal (Ceyhan) |
0.53 |
2% |
Istanbul |
0.46 |
1% |
Iskenderun |
0.38 |
1% |
Dortyol Oil Terminal |
0.33 |
1% |
Izmit |
0.30 |
1% |
Diliskelesi |
0.22 |
1% |
Yalova |
0.10 |
0% |
İzmir |
0.04 |
0% |
Total |
32.14 |
100% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 17: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from
India by Discharge Ports in 2017
Diesel/Gasoil Imports of
Turkey from India By Discharge Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name |
Total Imports |
Share in Total |
Marmara Ereğlisi |
8,13 |
62% |
Mersin |
4,97 |
38% |
Total |
13,10 |
100% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 18: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from
Greece by Discharge Ports in 2017
Diesel/Gasoil Imports of
Turkey from Greece by Discharge Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name |
Total Imports |
Share in Total |
Mersin |
1,65 |
25% |
Aliaga |
1,28 |
19% |
Dortyol Oil Terminal |
1,12 |
17% |
Marmara Ereğlisi |
0,69 |
10% |
Nemrut Bay (Izmir satellite port) |
0,45 |
7% |
Gebze |
0,36 |
5% |
Tutuncifilik |
0,35 |
5% |
Izmit |
0,34 |
5% |
Iskenderun |
0,20 |
3% |
Antalya |
0,10 |
1% |
Istanbul |
0,08 |
1% |
Total |
6,60 |
100% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 19: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from
Bulgaria by Discharge Ports in 2017
Diesel/Gasoil Imports of
Turkey from Bulgaria by Discharge Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name |
Total Imports |
Share in Total |
Marmara Ereğlisi |
1,748 |
21% |
Samsun |
1,731 |
21% |
Aliaga |
1,061 |
13% |
Trabzon |
1,013 |
12% |
Mersin |
0,731 |
9% |
Antalya |
0,530 |
6% |
Iskenderun |
0,390 |
5% |
Gebze |
0,332 |
4% |
Tutuncifilik |
0,292 |
3% |
Istanbul |
0,190 |
2% |
Ceyhan |
0,150 |
2% |
Dortyol Oil Terminal |
0,111 |
1% |
Izmit |
0,089 |
1% |
Nemrut Bay (Izmir satellite port) |
0,034 |
0% |
Total |
8,401 |
100% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
According to Thomson Reuters Eikon data, Turkey
imports diesel from Greece and Bulgaria as it is shown in Table 18 and Table 19
respectively. Turkish Energy Market Regulatory also confirms this result.
3.1.5. Greece
Figure 13: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Greece in 2017 by Countries
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure 14: Diesel/Gasoil Exports of Greece
in 2017 by Countries
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 20: Greek Diesel/Gasoil Exports by
Ports in 2017
Greek Diesel/Gasoil
Exports by Ports |
||
Load Port |
Total Exports |
Share in Total |
Agioi Theodoroi |
22.02 |
67% |
Eleusis |
10.42 |
32% |
Thessaloniki |
0.22 |
1% |
Total |
32.60 |
100% |
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon
3.1.6 Italy
Figure
15: Italian
Refineries
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure 16: Italian Diesel/Gasoil Imports in
2017 by Countries
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure 17: Italian Diesel/Gasoil Exports in
2017 by Countries
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 21: Italian Diesel/Gasoil Imports by
Ports in 2017
Italian Diesel/Gasoil
Imports by Ports (Million Barrels) |
||
|
Total Imports |
Share in Total |
Porto Marghera |
9.29 |
23,45% |
Genoa |
6.64 |
16,79% |
Fiumicino |
5.49 |
13,86% |
Trieste |
3.57 |
9,01% |
Sarroch (Porto Foxi) |
3.04 |
7,68% |
Santa Panagia Bay |
2.21 |
5,59% |
Augusta |
2.18 |
5,50% |
Gaeta |
1.18 |
2,98% |
Naples |
1.17 |
2,95% |
Leghorn |
1.08 |
2,72% |
Ancona |
1.04 |
2,62% |
Torre Annunziata |
0.85 |
2,15% |
Venice |
0.44 |
1,10% |
Ravenna |
0.42 |
1,05% |
Taranto |
0.36 |
0,90% |
Brindisi |
0.30 |
0,77% |
Vado Ligure |
0.17 |
0,42% |
Milazzo |
0.10 |
0,26% |
La Spezia |
0.07 |
0,18% |
TOTAL |
39.60 |
100,00% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 22: Italian Diesel/Gasoil Exports by
Ports in 2017
Italian Diesel/Gasoil
Exports by Ports 2017 (in Million Barrels) |
||
|
Total Exports |
Share in Total |
Sarroch (Porto Foxi) |
31.30 |
52,74% |
Santa Panagia Bay |
16.40 |
27,70% |
Augusta |
5.74 |
9,68% |
Milazzo |
1.50 |
2,52% |
Leghorn |
1.17 |
1,98% |
Genoa |
1.00 |
1,69% |
Porto Marghera |
0.78 |
1,32% |
Ancona |
0.77 |
1,29% |
Ravenna |
0.33 |
0,55% |
Taranto |
0.26 |
0,45% |
Vado Ligure |
0.04 |
0,08% |
TOTAL |
59.32 |
100,00% |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
3.2 Vessel Types
The key part of our project relies on the economics of shipping for
physical diesel/gasoil trade. For any particular inter regional path, arbitrage
opportunities occur as long as freight rates would let. So it is vital for us
to understand the dynamics and the economics of diesel/gasoil physical trade
from the East of Suez to MED. This section will focus on understanding these
points.
Cargo ships or
vessels come in different types and sizes to meet the various demands of marine
cargo transportation. Cargo ships are categorised partly by capacity and
partly by dimensions (often related to the different canals and canal locks
they are travelling through). Sizes of
cargo vessels range from a modest handysize carrier
(10,000 – 30,000 DWT) to gigantic VLCC and ULCC supertankers with a capacity to carry cargoes
of more than 200,000 DWT. Aframax and Panamax are
mid-sized cargo vessels.
For clean
products, generally mid-sized cargoes are preferred due to their optimized
costs for clean products cargo sizes. Additionally, their capability to
load/discharge from medium to small size ports make them attractive for clean
products cargoes, as most of these cargoes are loaded from refineries or small
ports close to the refinieries. As an industry fact, majority of the
diesel/gasoil cargoes are carried in Aframax vessels. We preferred to get in
deeper analysis on Aframax vessels based on these abovementioned dynamics.
3.2.1 Aframax
AFRA stands for Average Freight Rate Assessment. As the name
suggests, Aframax is medium-sized oil tankers with a deadweight tonnage (DWT) between 80,000 and 119,999.
Though relatively small in size in comparison to VLCC and ULCC, Aframax tankers
have a capacity to carry up to 120,000
metric tonnes. They are just ideal for short to medium-haul oil trades and are
primarily used in regions of lower crude production
or the areas that lack large ports to accommodate large oil carriers.
3.2.2 Handysize
Handysize are
small-sized ships with a capacity ranging between 15,000 and 35,000 DWT. These
vessels are ideal for small as well as large ports, and so make up the majority
of ocean cargo vessels in the world. They are mainly used in transporting
finished petroleum products and for bulk cargo.
3.2.3 Panamax and New Panamax
As the name suggests, Panamax and New Panamax ships
are travelling through the Panama Canal. They
strictly follow the size regulations set by the Panama Canal Authority, as the
entry and exit points of the Canal are narrow. A Panamax vessel cannot
be longer than 294,13 m (965 ft), wider
than 32,31 m (106 ft) and her draught cannot
be more than 12,04 m (39,5 ft). These vessels have an average capacity of 65,000
DWT and are
primarily used in transporting coal, crude oil and petroleum products.
They operate in the Caribbean and Latin American regions.
The New
Panamax has been
created as a result of the expanding plans for Panama Canal locks.
Expanded locks will be around 427 m (1400 ft) long, 55 m (180 ft) wide and
18,30 m (60 ft) deep so Panama Canal will be able to handle larger vessels.
3.2.4 Suezmax
Suezmax are named after the
famous Suez
Canal. They are mid-sized cargo vessels with a capacity ranging
between 120,000 to 200,000 DWT. They are designed to pass through the majority
of the ports in the world. Currently, the
permissible limits for Suezmax ships are
20,1 m (66 ft) of draught with the beam no wider
than 50 m (164,0 ft), or 12,2 m (40 ft) of draught with a maximum allowed beam of 77,5 m (254 ft).
3.2.5 VLCC and ULCC
VLCC stands for Very Large Crude
Carriers. They have a capacity ranging between 180,000 to 320,000
DWT. They are very flexible in using terminals and can also operate in ports
with depth limitations. VLCCs are used extensively around the North Sea,
Mediterranean and West Africa.
ULCC or Ultra Large Crude
Carriers are
the largest shipping vessels in the world with a size more than 320,000
DWT. Called Super Tankers, ULCCs are used for long-haul oil crude transportation
from the Middle East to Europe, Asia, and
North America.
Figure
25: Comparison
of Tanker Sizes
Source: https://transportgeography.org
3.3 Major Trade Routes for Diesel
Figure
26: India to
Turkey (15 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure
35: India to
Rotterdam (NWE) via Mersin (22 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure
36: India to
France (MED) via Mersin (17 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure
37: Saudi Arabia to France(MED) via Mersin (17 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure
38: Saudi
Arabia to Netherlands (NWE) via Mersin (23 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Figure
39: Saudi
Arabia to USA via Mersin (34 Days)
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
We also provided the information of
the ships that are used in the India –
Turkey – France route in 2017. This information can be useful on understanding
the trade patterns of the vessels. All sources are
taken from Thomson Reuters Eikon, and
total prices are calculated from SeaRates.com
Table
23: STI Rose
Voyages In 2017
STI Rose Voyages In 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
14.02.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
25.02.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
15.03.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
25.03.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
16.04.2017 |
Turkey |
Marmara Erglisi |
30.04.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
3.708 |
$890.000,00 |
14 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
21.05.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
01.06.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
19.06.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
01.07.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
13.08.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
24.08.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
10.09.2017 |
United Kingdom |
Milford Haven |
02.10.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
5.989 |
$1.437.000,00 |
22 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
26.10.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
12.11.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
97,98 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
10 |
India |
Jamnagar
(Sikka) |
25.12.2017 |
Turkey |
Marmara Erglisi |
10.01.2018 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
3.708 |
$890.000,00 |
14 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
24: Free
Spirit Voyages in 2017
Free Spirit Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
28.01.2017 |
Turkey |
Marmara Erglisi |
12.02.2017 |
Diesel |
18,20 |
6.868 |
$873.894,00 |
15 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
04.03.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
18.03.2017 |
Diesel |
90,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
14 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
06.04.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
18.04.2017 |
Diesel |
18,20 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
12 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
02.05.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
04.06.2017 |
Naphtha |
18,20 |
16.204 |
$3.087.641,00 |
33 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
02.05.2017 |
South Korea |
Ulsan |
26.06.2017 |
Naphtha |
18,20 |
16.341 |
$3.113.528,00 |
55 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
21.08.2017 |
Israel |
Ashkelon |
03.09.2017 |
Diesel |
50,00 |
3.066 |
$722.145,00 |
13 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
21.08.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
08.09.2017 |
Diesel |
50,00 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
18 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
21.09.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
30.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
44,33 |
16.204 |
$3.087.641,00 |
39 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
21.09.2017 |
South Korea |
Onsan |
25.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
44,33 |
16.340 |
$3.113.528,00 |
34 |
Singapore |
Singapore |
14.11.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
12.12.2017 |
Diesel |
96,13 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
28 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
31.12.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
09.02.2018 |
Diesel |
51,03 |
2.952 |
$619.157,00 |
41 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
31.12.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
14.02.2018 |
Diesel |
45,10 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
45 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
25: Orange
Stars Voyages in 2017
Orange Stars Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
02.04.2017 |
Egypt |
Port Said OPL |
14.04.2017 |
Diesel |
50,00 |
2.952 |
$705.262,40 |
11 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
02.04.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
20.04.2017 |
Diesel |
50,00 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
18 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
07.06.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
22.06.2017 |
Diesel |
98,39 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
15 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
11.01.2017 |
Israel |
Ashkelon |
25.01.2017 |
Diesel |
100,00 |
3.066 |
$722.145,00 |
14 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
08.11.2017 |
Turkey |
Mersin |
26.11.2017 |
Naphtha |
46,16 |
6.122 |
$778.382,00 |
18 |
Russian Federation |
Taman |
14.12.2017 |
South Korea |
Onsan |
24.01.2018 |
Naphtha |
88,85 |
16.340 |
$3.113.528,00 |
42 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
04.07.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
10.08.2017 |
Naphtha |
89,99 |
16.204 |
$3.087.641,00 |
36 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
26: Abbey Road
Voyages in 2017
Abbey Road Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Vadinar |
11.02.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
08.03.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
62,99 |
6.023 |
$1.419.297,00 |
25 |
Norway |
Mongstad |
15.03.2017 |
United Arab Emirates |
Fujairah |
08.04.2017 |
Gasoline |
63,68 |
6.551 |
$3.403.636,00 |
25 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
04.08.2017 |
Netherlands |
Rotterdam |
30.08.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
31,00 |
6.232 |
$1.468.392,00 |
26 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
04.08.2017 |
United Kingdom |
Thamesport |
28.08.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
31,00 |
6.150 |
$1.448.754,00 |
24 |
Russian Federation |
Taman |
11.10.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
25.11.2017 |
Naphtha |
57,99 |
8.710 |
$3.074.252,00 |
45 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
27: Alpine
Confidence Voyages in 2017
Alpine Confidence Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
05.12.2017 |
France |
Le Havre |
28.12.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
94,39 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
23 |
Lithuania |
Klaipeda |
23.06.2017 |
United Arab Emirates |
Fujairah |
22.07.2017 |
Gasoline |
38,63 |
6.730 |
$3.496.470,00 |
28 |
Cyprus |
Limassol |
17.09.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
17.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
14,78 |
7.739 |
$2.731.478,00 |
31 |
Cyprus |
Limassol |
17.09.2017 |
Taiwan |
Kaohsiung |
11.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
14,78 |
6.926 |
$2.229.814,00 |
24 |
Russian Federation |
Taman |
09.09.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
17.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
30,95 |
8.710 |
$3.074.252,00 |
38 |
Russian Federation |
Taman |
09.09.2017 |
Taiwan |
Kaohsiung |
11.10.2017 |
Naphtha |
30,95 |
7.897 |
$2.543.131,00 |
31 |
Saudi Arabia |
Yanbu |
24.05.2017 |
France |
Dunkirk |
07.06.2017 |
Gasoil |
8,00 |
3.840 |
$2.973.383,00 |
14 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
28: Amfitriti
Voyages in 2017
Amfitriti Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
22.09.2017 |
United Arab Emirates |
Fujairah |
13.10.2017 |
Gasoline |
98,09 |
6.095 |
$3.167.086,00 |
21 |
Greece |
Eleusis |
09.12.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
17.01.2018 |
Naphtha |
37,74 |
8.074 |
$2.849.306,00 |
38 |
Greece |
Eleusis |
09.12.2017 |
South Korea |
Daesan |
14.01.2018 |
Diesel |
37,74 |
8.148 |
$2.876.086,00 |
36 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
01.11.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
24.11.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
94,40 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
23 |
Cyprus |
Limassol |
14.12.2017 |
South Korea |
Yeosu (Yosu) |
17.01.2018 |
Naphtha |
11,25 |
7.739 |
$2.731.478,00 |
34 |
Cyprus |
Limassol |
14.12.2017 |
South Korea |
Daesan |
14.01.2018 |
Naphtha |
11,25 |
7.813 |
$2.757.364,00 |
31 |
Singapore |
Singapore |
07.08.2017 |
Netherlands |
Rotterdam |
10.09.2017 |
Diesel |
98,09 |
8.298 |
$1.954.881,00 |
34 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
29: Ashley
Lady Voyages in 2017
Ashley Lady Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Gibraltar |
Gibraltar |
24.07.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
30.07.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
96,62 |
1.260 |
$975.655,00 |
6 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
02.03.2017 |
France (Southern) |
Fos |
19.03.2017 |
Diesel |
50,05 |
4.549 |
$1.072.060,00 |
17 |
Saudi Arabia |
Jubail |
25.08.2017 |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
26.09.2017 |
Diesel |
80,00 |
6.528 |
$5.054.127,00 |
31 |
Turkey |
Tutuncifilik |
11.04.2017 |
15.04.2017 |
Gasoline |
80,00 |
4 |
||||
Saudi Arabia |
Yanbu |
21.10.2017 |
Belgium |
Antwerp |
06.11.2017 |
Diesel |
80,00 |
3.932 |
$3.044.795,00 |
16 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
30: Breezy
Victoria Voyages in 2017
Breezy Victoria Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Belgium |
Antwerp |
07.06.2017 |
Togo |
Lome |
22.06.2017 |
Gasoline |
60,62 |
4.050 |
$5.903.920,00 |
15 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
20.04.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
12.05.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
28,69 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
22 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
31: Gulf
Castle Voyages in 2017
Gulf Castle Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
03.10.2017 |
China |
Shanghai |
18.11.2017 |
Gasoline |
30,00 |
10.483 |
$3.375.964,00 |
46 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
06.09.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
29.09.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
60,00 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
23 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
27.03.2017 |
United Kingdom |
Thamesport |
05.05.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
65,00 |
6.150 |
$1.448.754,00 |
39 |
Norway |
Mongstad |
13.05.2017 |
Togo |
Lome |
29.05.2017 |
Gasoline |
76,65 |
4.538 |
$2.070.924,00 |
16 |
Netherlands |
Rotterdam |
06.10.2017 |
China |
Shanghai |
18.11.2017 |
Gasoline |
30,00 |
10.454 |
$3.366.145,00 |
43 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
32: Navig8
Goal Voyages in 2017
Navig8 Goal Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Belgium |
Antwerp |
09.04.2017 |
Togo |
Lome |
25.04.2017 |
Gasoline |
90,87 |
4.050 |
$5.903.920,00 |
16 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
02.01.2017 |
France (Southern) |
Fos |
28.01.2017 |
Diesel |
40,62 |
4.549 |
$1.072.060,00 |
26 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
02.01.2017 |
Spain |
Barcelona |
23.01.2017 |
Gasoil |
50,00 |
4.542 |
$1.070.275,00 |
21 |
Russian Federation |
Primorsk |
31.05.2017 |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
07.06.2017 |
Gasoil |
26,47 |
985 |
$449.880,00 |
7 |
Russian Federation |
Tuapse |
21.10.2017 |
South Korea |
Inchon |
01.12.2017 |
Naphtha |
86,90 |
8.815 |
$3.110.850,00 |
41 |
Latvia |
Ventspils |
13.03.2017 |
Belgium |
Antwerp |
18.03.2017 |
Diesel |
95,37 |
826 |
$376.694,00 |
5 |
Latvia |
Ventspils |
17.07.2017 |
Netherlands |
Rotterdam |
22.07.2017 |
Gasoil |
51,95 |
754 |
$343.666,00 |
4 |
Latvia |
Ventspils |
02.06.2017 |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
07.06.2017 |
Gasoil |
26,47 |
704 |
$321.350,00 |
5 |
Latvia |
Ventspils |
13.02.2017 |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
17.02.2017 |
Diesel |
94,14 |
704 |
$321.350,00 |
4 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
33: Okyroe
Voyages in 2017
Okyroe Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
Netherlands |
Amsterdam |
18.02.2017 |
Togo |
Lome |
11.03.2017 |
Gasoil |
56,09 |
4.083 |
$5.952.123,00 |
21 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
15.01.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
09.02.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
63,95 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
25 |
Libya |
Mellitah |
21.04.2017 |
Singapore |
Singapore |
14.05.2017 |
Gasoline |
60,00 |
6.000 |
$1.931.676,00 |
23 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
34: UACC Ibn
Sina Voyages in 2017
UACC Ibn Sina Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
15.04.2017 |
France (Northern) |
Le Havre |
04.06.2017 |
Jet Fuel |
63,89 |
6.042 |
$1.423.760,00 |
51 |
United States |
South Louisiana Port |
02.09.2017 |
France (Southern) |
Fos |
24.09.2017 |
Diesel |
60,00 |
5.196 |
$2.370.851,00 |
22 |
Russian Federation |
Vysotsk |
16.06.2017 |
Brazil |
Tramandai |
05.08.2017 |
Naphtha |
14,95 |
6.798 |
$3.024.264,00 |
50 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
35: Wisdom
Venture Voyages in 2017
Wisdom Venture
Voyages in 2017 |
||||||||||
Load Country |
Load Port |
Departure Date |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Arrival Date |
Product |
Volume (kT) |
Distance |
Total Price |
Voyage Time |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
05.11.2017 |
France (Southern) |
Fos |
01.12.2017 |
Diesel |
46,46 |
4.549 |
$1.072.060,00 |
26 |
India |
Jamnagar (Sikka) |
05.11.2017 |
Spain |
Castellon |
26.11.2017 |
Gasoil |
31,50 |
4.608 |
$1.085.450,00 |
21 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
3.3.1 Methodology for Daily Voyage Costs Calculation in Major Trade Routes for
Diesel
We
found 2006 data about the daily voyage
costs of vessels. By making the following assumptions, we adjusted the data to
today’s prices.
Assumptions
are the following:
·
According
to Consumer Price Index $100 in 2006 = $121 in 2017 so we adjusted costs
accordingly even though every year there is a 1% decline in fixed costs and
depreciation costs.
·
Every
ship uses heavy fuel oil for the voyages. We know that there are some
restrictions on some type of fuels in
some regions.
·
For
the Mersin routes, we add one additional day.
·
Our
cost estimation for Lavera is $164.742 and for Jamnagar $107.445.
·
Our
freight rates are consistent with this calculator. They do not calculate
port or canal costs.
According to these calculations, daily voyage
costs of oil tankers are given in the
following table.
Table 36: Daily Voyage Costs of Oil
Tankers
Daily Voyage Costs of Oil Tankers |
||||||
Type of Ship |
Product Tanker |
Handy Product |
Panamax Tanker |
Aframax Tanker |
Suezmax Tanker |
VLCC |
Year of Building |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
Dead Weight Tonage (DWT) |
22,363 |
42,363 |
63,591 |
97,778 |
151,039 |
297,291 |
Speed (Knots) |
15.10 |
15.00 |
15.10 |
15.10 |
15.10 |
15.10 |
Daily Fuel Consumption at 15.1 Knots |
33.6 |
37.9 |
43.1 |
55.2 |
70.9 |
78.5 |
Price of Fuel in $ |
351 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
351 |
20-year lifespan of the ship |
||||||
Days of service 365 |
365 |
365 |
365 |
365 |
365 |
365 |
Daily operating costs in $ |
5,330 |
5,770 |
6,978 |
6,782 |
6,962 |
8,812 |
Daily depreciation in $ |
2,344 |
5,792 |
2,891 |
5,535 |
4,341 |
8,422 |
Fixed Costs per day in $ |
7,674 |
11,563 |
9,869 |
12,317 |
11,304 |
17,234 |
Daily cost of fuel in $ |
11,793 |
13,303 |
15,128 |
19,374 |
24,886 |
27,554 |
Daily voyage costs of ship |
13,853 |
18,534 |
17,795 |
22,468 |
24,344 |
31,672 |
Total Daily Cost in $ |
40,994 |
54,962 |
52,661 |
66,476 |
71,838 |
93,693 |
Table 37: Suez Canal Costs (for Aframax)
Suez Canal Costs (for Aframax) |
|
Pilotage |
$598 |
Suez Canal Dues |
$508,796 |
Total Light Dues |
$11,579 |
Light
Dues: Suez |
|
Light
Dues: Port Said |
|
Port Dues |
$3,366 |
Port Authority Fees |
$700.00 |
Ministry Fees |
$6,075.00 |
Mooring/Unmooring |
$2,309.00 |
Garbage Dues (northbound only) |
N/A |
Extra Pilotage |
$1,800.00 |
Escort Tugs |
$28,967 |
First-time canal transit |
N/A |
Grand Total USD |
$564,190 |
Source: Wilhelmsen
Table 38: Voyage Days Between Countries
Voyage Times |
||
From |
To |
Days |
India |
Turkey |
15 |
India |
Australia |
10 |
Russia |
Singapore |
37 |
Russia |
Germany |
7 |
US |
Netherlands |
17-18 |
US |
France |
17-18 |
Netherlands |
China |
50 |
Saudi Arabia |
UK |
21 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 39: Distance
and Costs in Major Ports in Diesel Market (Beta Version)
Distances and Costs in
Major Ports in Diesel Market |
|||||||
Departure Port |
Country |
Arrival Port |
Country |
Via Mersin |
Distance (Sea
Miles) |
Voyage Time
(Days) |
Total Cost ($) |
Jamnagar |
India |
Rotterdam |
Netherlands |
NO |
6321,28 |
19,07 |
2.104.072 |
YES |
6765,98 |
22,07 |
2.641.288 |
||||
Jamnagar |
India |
Port de Bouc
(Lavera) |
France |
NO |
4560,11 |
14,26 |
1.784.323 |
YES |
4987,85 |
16,59 |
2.321.539 |
||||
Jamnagar |
India |
Port Arthur |
USA |
NO |
9682,37 |
30,07 |
2.835.307 |
YES |
10127,10 |
32,45 |
3.372.523 |
||||
Jubail |
Saudi Arabia |
Port Arthur |
USA |
NO |
9941,40 |
30,87 |
2.616.301 |
YES |
10386,10 |
33,25 |
2.881.330 |
||||
Jubail |
Saudi Arabia |
Rotterdam |
Netherlands |
NO |
6580,30 |
20,50 |
2.199.133 |
YES |
7025,00 |
22,87 |
2.464.162 |
||||
Jubail |
Saudi Arabia |
Port de Bouc
(Lavera) |
France |
NO |
4819,13 |
15,06 |
1.837.503 |
YES |
5246,88 |
17,38 |
2.102.532 |
Source: Sea
Rates
3.4 Port Analysis
Mersin International Port is one of the largest container
ports in Southern Turkey, serving an extensive
industrial hinterland in the region with a significant contribution to the
country's foreign trade. It is connected
to all main ports around the world through over 20 shipping lines making
regular calls. 24/7 nonstop service is provided with modern equipment at the Container Terminal with a
total 1,485m berth length and the 15m
draft. Mersin International
Port is ranked the 95th among the 120 biggest ports in the world.
Loading / Unloading/ Transhipment / Cabotage
Loading / Unloading/ Transhipment / Cabotage services are
provided to approximately 1,500 container vessels per year at Mersin
International Port. As one of the most important
entry/exit gates for Turkey’s import,
export and transit cargoes, Mersin International Port has reached the globally
accepted container handling standards (vessel rate-crane rate).
Table
40: Mersin
Port Storage Capacity
Multi-purpose Berths |
12 |
Berths with direct Railway Connection |
5 |
- Max. vessel length |
300m |
- Total berths length |
1,895 m |
Dry Bulk Cargo Capacity |
8,000,000
tons / year |
Liquid Bulk Cargo Capacity |
1,000,000
tons /year |
General Cargo Capacity |
1,000,000
tons / year |
Ro-Ro Capacity |
150,000 units
/ year |
Storage Area |
13,500 m2 closed,
468,000 m2 open |
Ro-Ro Area |
127,600 m2 |
Liquid Bulk Cargo Handling Capacity |
1.000.000 Tons
/ Year |
Container Handling Capacity |
2.600.000 Teu
/ Year |
Source: Mersin
Port
Table 41: Mersin International Port Capacity Information
2017 |
2018 First two
months |
|
|
||||
Name of the institution |
Capacity (Tonnage, TEU, m3) |
Number of Vessels |
Total Handling |
Capacity Usage Percentage |
Number of Vessels |
Total Handling |
Capacity Usage Percentage |
Alpet |
96,000 m3 |
2 |
68437 m3 |
71.20% |
1 |
39,379 |
35% |
Canaslan |
65,000 m3 |
1 |
28795 m3 |
44.30% |
0 |
0 |
0% |
Opet |
240,000 m3 |
124 |
2,375,959 m3 |
989% |
23 |
339,990 |
141.60% |
Ataş |
570,800 m3 |
53 |
2,017,750 m3 |
347.80% |
12 |
274,591 |
48.10% |
Poaş |
109,856 m3 |
31 |
397,000 m3 |
361% |
8 |
60,416 |
54.90% |
Enerji |
40,600 m3 |
2 |
14,921 m3 |
36.70% |
1 |
4,096 |
10.08% |
Savka |
365,000 m3 |
35 |
395,248 m3 |
108.20% |
2 |
20,925 |
5.73% |
Nergis |
157,244 m3 |
12 |
340,259 m3 |
216.30% |
3 |
74,391 |
47.30% |
Akpet |
27,084 m3 |
22 |
308,456 m3 |
1138.80% |
3 |
45,507 |
168% |
Mesbaş |
1,500,000 tonnages |
265 |
1,120,238 tonnages |
74.60% |
51 |
224,751 |
14.90% |
2,000,000 TEU, |
4378 |
1,591,000 TEU |
79.55% |
698 |
264,481 TEU |
13% |
|
MIP |
9,850,000 Tonnage |
6,400,000 Tonnage |
64.90% |
1,050,716 |
10.60% |
||
(Dry and liquid bulk,
Cargoes) |
Source: Mersin Port
3.4.2 Lavera Marseilles Terminal
Summary Information
The
Lavera industrial park in the Port of Marseille's western basins has stored
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in underground facilities since 1972. Geogaz has the
capacity for 300 thousand cubic meters,
and Primagaz has the capacity for 100
thousand cubic meters. These companies treat imports and exports of propane,
commercial butane, and chemical butane. In 2005, the Lavera terminal handled
almost two million tons of cargo. The Port of Marseille-Fos'
Lavera terminal also handles chemical liquid bulk cargoes. In 2005, it handled
some three million tons of chemical liquid bulk. The terminal has the capacity to handle such chemicals as
styrene, propylene, ethylene, methanol, soda, MtBE, and many others.
Brief Description
·
The Lavera terminal is
specialized in handling liquid chemical products and liquefied petroleum
gas (LPG).
·
It is a large and complex refinery with integrated
petrochemicals. It is able to process a
wide range of crudes and produce high-quality
products.
Refining
Units
· Vacuum Distillation
· Fluidised Catalytic Cracker
· Steam Cracker (Petrochemicals)
· Hydrocracker
· Gasoline Desulphurisation
· Diesel Desulphurisation
· Asphalt Unit - 220,000 t/y
Crude Supply
Products Produced
Type of Tanker Rates Transported from Cross Med to
Lavera: Aframax, Suezmax and Handysize.
Figure
40: Lavera Terminal
Source: Intertanko
Source: Intertanko
The following four figures are
obtained from:
Table
42: Number of
Vessels Arrivals and Departures at Lavera Port
Source: Marine Traffic
Table
43: Wet Bulk Time Spent at Lavera Port (Days)
Source: Marine Traffic
Table
44: Wet Bulk Time Spent at Anchorage (Days)
Source: Marine Traffic
Table
45: Average
Arrivals and Departures by Hour of the Day
Source: Marine Traffic
Table 46: Diesel/Gasoil
exports from Lavera Port in 2017
Vessel |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Grade |
Volume |
DOMINIA |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
215.379,23 |
KAREN MAERSK |
Italy |
Sarroch (Porto Foxi) |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
222.147,43 |
DUKE I |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
208.680,58 |
LUCKY LADY |
Tunisia |
Bizerte |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
156.872,15 |
CRAWFORD |
Malta |
Malta/Marsaxlokk |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
111.522,38 |
CRAWFORD |
Tunisia |
Zarzis |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
111.522,38 |
LEON HERMES |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
222.982,15 |
ALDEBARAN |
Spain |
Barcelona |
Gasoil (Assessed) |
224.011,65 |
HIGH CURRE |
Togo |
Lome |
0.005 / 50ppm |
243.827,95 |
HIGH CURRE |
Ghana |
Tema |
0.005 / 50ppm |
23.157,98 |
MT AZRA S |
Italy |
Genoa |
Gasoil (Assessed) |
34.404,47 |
KEREL |
Algeria |
Skikda |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
208.478,85 |
ADVANTAGE PARTY |
Slovenia |
Koper |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
228.025,27 |
HISTRIA GIADA |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
208.680,58 |
TORM THAMES |
Mauritania |
Nouadhibou |
Gasoil (Assessed) |
278.108,61 |
VALLE DI SIVIGLIA |
Lebanon |
Tripoli (Lebanon) |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
95.680,05 |
VALLE DI SIVIGLIA |
Lebanon |
Zahrani Terminal |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
95.680,05 |
SUPERBA |
Brazil |
Paranagua |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
76.495,34 |
SUPERBA |
Brazil |
Paranagua |
Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD 10ppm) |
105.278,66 |
SUPERBA |
Brazil |
Paranagua |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
57.630,62 |
MIMMO IEVOLI |
Italy |
Genoa |
Gasoil (Assessed) |
28.244,92 |
VALLE DI CORDOBA |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil 0.1% |
222.940,42 |
VALLE DI NAVARRA |
Tunisia |
Bizerte |
Gasoil 0.1% |
218.105,98 |
MOUNT OLYMPUS |
Tunisia |
La Skhirra |
Gasoil 0.1% |
190.511,46 |
NORD GARDENIA |
Italy |
Leghorn |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
139.113,43 |
EBERHARDT ARCTIC |
Malta |
Malta/Marsaxlokk |
Gasoil 0.1% |
47.848,30 |
HISTRIA AZURE |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
240.810,43 |
RHINO |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil 0.1% |
219.984,11 |
TOWER BRIDGE |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
218.878,10 |
VALLE DI ANDALUSIA |
Algeria |
Arzew |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
156.301,75 |
SILVER VENUS |
Uruguay |
La Paloma |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
206.970,79 |
LIBERA |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
223.169,97 |
||
VALCADORE |
Algeria |
Algiers |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
219.344,16 |
LEON HERMES |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
224.519,43 |
RHINO |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
217.918,17 |
HAFNIA MAGELLAN |
Algeria |
Algiers |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
147.571,95 |
ALICE |
Italy |
Augusta |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
201.821,94 |
NORD HIGHLANDER |
Tunisia |
Bizerte |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
189.697,60 |
ATLANTIC SYMPHONY |
Tunisia |
Bizerte |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
237.965,42 |
HISTRIA IVORY |
Cote DIvoire |
Abidjan |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
91.678,94 |
HISTRIA IVORY |
Togo |
Lome |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
91.678,94 |
NORDIC HANNE |
Tunisia |
Bizerte |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
190.059,32 |
HISTRIA AMBRA |
Algeria |
Arzew |
0.1 / 1000ppm |
218.850,28 |
AMPHITRITE |
Gibraltar |
Gibraltar |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
227.566,17 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
47: Diesel/Gasoil Imports to Lavera Port in 2017
Vessel |
Discharge Country |
Discharge Port |
Grade |
Volume |
STI YORKVILLE |
United States |
Port Arthur |
Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD 10ppm) |
130.230,90 |
SARACENA |
Spain |
Cartagena (Spain) |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
50.681,56 |
ICDAS-09 |
Italy |
Porto Marghera |
Gasoil (Assessed) |
118.154,94 |
CALAJUNCO M |
Italy |
Augusta |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
83.472,23 |
CALAJUNCO M |
Italy |
Vado Ligure |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
44.622,86 |
VULCANELLO M |
Spain |
Huelva |
Diesel (Assessed) |
62.530,37 |
BLUE MARLIN |
Russian Federation |
Kavkaz |
High Sulphur Vacuum Gas Oil(HSVGO) |
188.209,01 |
COSTANZA M |
Italy |
Porto Marghera |
Heavy Vacuum Oil (HVO) |
183.583,26 |
CHALLENGE PEARL |
United States |
South Louisiana Port |
0.001 / 10ppm |
217.292,87 |
LYSIAS |
United States |
South Louisiana Port |
Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD 10ppm) |
43.327,30 |
CANNETO M |
Italy |
Augusta |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
29.573,66 |
MRC SEMIRAMIS |
Bulgaria |
Varna |
Gasoil (Unspecified) |
26.439,83 |
MT GEORGIA |
Italy |
Sarroch (Porto Foxi) |
0.001 / 10ppm |
214.874,48 |
TORM AMALIE |
United States |
Texas City |
Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD 10ppm) |
66.454,88 |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table
48: Costs (in Euros per Cubic Metre) of Entering
and Leaving According to Type of Ship
Tankers Carrying liquid petroleum
products |
|
|
SBT
oil tankers carrying crude oil |
Entering |
Leaving |
of
a volume 15000 m3 |
0.4885 |
0.1557 |
volume
between 15000 m3 to 99999 m3 |
0.4881 |
0.3088 |
of
a volume ≥ 100000 m3 |
0.4601 |
0.3088 |
SBT
tankers carrying refined products |
||
of
a volume 15000 m3 |
0.4885 |
0.1557 |
volume
between 15000 m3 to 99999 m3 |
0.4881 |
0.3088 |
of
a volume ≥ 100000 m3 |
0.4601 |
0.3088 |
Ships
carrying liquid petroleum gas |
0.2389 |
0.1939 |
Ships
carrying liquefied chemical gas |
0.2389 |
0.1939 |
Ships
carrying liquid natural gas (methane tankers) |
0.2381 |
0.1934 |
Source: Marseille Port
3.5. Diesel Production and Trade in Europe
Below map shows the list of
refineries that produce gasoil in Europe.
The dots on the map represent the refineries. The name of the refinery is matched with the numbers to the table below
the map.
Figure
42: Refineries
that Produce Diesel (Europe)
Scenario 1: Turkey re-exports the diesel/gasoil
imported from India to Europe
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 2,899 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods. The data showed
that Europe imports diesel/gasoil from India occur in every 12 days. The main
challenge for us to perform these scenarios was reaching out the necessary
diesel/gasoil price and freight rate data. However, we wanted to test our
methodolgy so we used some other benchmark prices that could still be a
reference point. Although the pricing of ex-India diesel/gasoil has its own
price dynamics, we assumed that the CIF MED price for Indian cargoes must
diverge to the desired buying price in
MED. So, in order to determine the FOB price for Indian cargoes, we decieed to use
ULSD 10 ppm FOB ARA prices and we are aware of the errors this could create.
Additionally, there is no ex-Mersin price for diesel/gasoil currently so as a
starting point, we used ULSD 10 ppm CIF MED as a reference point for ex-Mersin
cargoes. In real terms, CIF Mersin should be FOB India+Freight rate to
Mersin+storage cost in Mersin, and we are aware of the errors our assumptions
could generate. Another important point to mention is that ULSD is a highly
desirable product with high quality compared to gaosil types. It is known that
the ULSD price is in premium against gasoil types.
In Scenario 1A, we used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm
prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought
from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10
ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold
from Turkey. The average India price was 469,46$ per tons, and the average Turkey price was $467,45.
During the contango periods Turkey price was lower than India, the average difference was $20,59. In these
contango periods, average trade was 74,43KT
which is slightly lower than the average trade, 78,24 KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were 80 shipments from India to European countries. Of those shipments, 42 of
them were sent during the contango periods. The average freight rate from India
to Europe was $775,635. If they had traded from Mersin,
the freight cost wouldbe $132,923 less. Since the average trade was 78.24 KT,
we assumed the storage capacity as 85 KT. Also, we know that the average trade
was in every 12 days, so we assumed the
storage time as 15 days. With these assumptions average storage cost estimated
as $117,354. At the end, Europe would
have gain $23,225,928. In this case, total loss of Turkey for the 2015-2018
period would have been $26.980.474. If this facility only operated during the
contango periods, then the total gain of European countries would be $64.356.326 and total loss of Turkey would be $74.285.210.
Table 49: Scenario 1A- Results
Scenario 1A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Average India Price |
469.46 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
467.45 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-2.01 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
454.05 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
433.47 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-20.59 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
74.43 |
KT |
Average Trade |
78.24 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
13 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
12 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
42 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
775,635 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
511,919 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
642,712 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,154,631 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-132,923 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354.38 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average Prices) |
23,225,938 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average Prices) |
-26,980,474 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average Prices) |
64,356,326 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average Prices) |
-74,285,210 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “1A-“ case,
Turkey paid the storage cost of the product during the process. However, if the
buying countries had paid the storage cost,
then the results above would change as it is
shown in case “1A+”.
Table 50: Scenario 1A+ Results
Scenario 1A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
42 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
13,837,589 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-17,592,124 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
59,427,443 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-69,356,327 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the diesel/gasoil
that is exported from India. This time
average price difference between Turkey and India increases to $45,88 per ton.
During the contango period, the average price difference is $50.87 per ton. As
a result, Europe Balance using this price
is $297,782,014, and Turkey expected to
lose $301,536,550. If we take only contango periods,
then Europe gains $294,542,154 and Turkey loses $308,226,378.
Table 51: Scenario 1B- Results
Scenario 1B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Average India Price |
513.33 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
467.45 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-45.88 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
523.67 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
472.80 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-50.87 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
78.25 |
KT |
Average Trade |
78.24 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
12 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
12 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
74 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
775,635 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
511,919 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
642,712 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,154631 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-132,923 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354.38 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
297,782,014.63 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-301,536,550.41 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
294,542,154.33 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-308,226,378.08 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Europe pays for the storage
costs, the results change as it is shown
in “1B+”.
Table 52: Scenario 1B+ Results
Scenario 1B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
74 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
288,393,665 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-292,148,200 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
285,857,931 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-299,542,154 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 699 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods to France. The data showed
that France imports diesel/gasoil from India in every 12 days. In Scenario 2A
we used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold from Turkey. The average India price
was $524.75 per tons, and the average
Turkey price was $514.28. During the contango periods, where Turkey price was
lower than India, the average difference
was $16.40. In this contango periods,
average trade was 69.69 KT which is slightly lower than the average trade, 69.90
KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were ten shipments from India to France. Of these
shipments 42 of them were sent during the contango periods. The average freight
rate from India to Europe was $595,366. If they had traded from Mersin, the freight cost was going to be $21.081
less. Since the average trade was 69.90 KT, we assumed the storage capacity as 85 KT. Also, we
know that the average trade was in every 102 days, so we assumed the storage time as 15 days. With these assumptions
average storage cost estimated as $104,851.50. According to these results if Mersin becomes a trading center for Europe for all trading operations in France will gain $7,529,442.52. In this case the total loss of Turkey for the 2015-2018 period, $-13,367,149.70.
If this facility only operated during the contango periods, then the total gain
of France would be $9,143,820.00 and total loss of Turkey would be $-14,982,632.00.
Table 53: Scenario 2A- Results
Scenario 2A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
France |
|
Average India Price |
524.75 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
514.28 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-10.47 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
534.16 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
517.76 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-16.40 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
69.69 |
KT |
Average Trade |
69.90 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
105 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
102 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
8 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
10 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
595,366 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
392,942 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
574,285 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
967,227 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-21,081 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
104,851.50 |
USD |
France Balance (Average) |
7,529,442.52 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-13,367,149.70 |
USD |
France Balance (Contango Average) |
9,143,820.00 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-14,982,632.00 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 54: Scenario 2A- Results
Scenario 2A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
France |
|
Average India Price |
524.75 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
514.28 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-10.47 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
534.16 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
517.76 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-16.40 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
69.69 |
KT |
Average Trade |
69.90 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
105 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
102 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
8 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
10 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
595,366 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
392,942 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
574,285 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
967,227 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-21,081 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
104,851.50 |
USD |
France Balance (Average) |
7,529,442.52 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-13,367,149.70 |
USD |
France Balance (Contango Average) |
9,143,820.00 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-14,982,632.00 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “2A-“ case,
Turkey paid the storage cost of the product during the process. However, if the
buying countries had paid the storage cost,
then the results above would change as it is
shown in case “2A+”.
Table 55: Scenario 2A+ Results
Scenario 2A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
8 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
10 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
104,852 |
USD |
France Balance (Average) |
6,480,928 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-12,318,635 |
USD |
France Balance (Contango Average) |
8,305,008 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-14,143,820 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the diesel/gasoil
that is exported from India. This time
average price difference between Turkey and India is $53.98
per ton. During the
contango period, the average price difference is $53.98 per ton.
As a result, France balance using this
price is $37,945,115.14 and Turkey expected to lose $43,782,822.33.
If we take only contango periods, then
France gains $37,734,307.33 and Turkey loses $43,782,822.33.
Table 56: Scenario 2B- Results
Scenario 2B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
France |
|
Average India Price |
568.26 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
514.28 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-53.98 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
568.26 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
514.28 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-53.98 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
69.90 |
KT |
Average Trade |
69.90 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
102 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
102 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
10 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
10 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
595,366 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
392,942 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
574,285 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
967,227 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-21,081 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
104,851.50 |
USD |
France Balance (Average) |
37,945,115.14 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-43,782,822.33 |
USD |
France Balance (Contango Average) |
37,734,307.33 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-43,782,822.33 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 57: Scenario 2B+ Results
Scenario 2B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
10 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
10 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
104,852 |
USD |
France Balance (Average) |
36,896,600 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-42,734,307 |
USD |
France Balance (Contango Average) |
36,685,792 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-42,734,307 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 1,300 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods to the Netherlands. The
data showed that Netherlands imports diesel/gasoil from India in every 12 days.
In Scenario 3A we used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold from Turkey. The average India price
was $416.37 per tons, and the average
Turkey price was $414.00. During the contango periods, where Turkey price was
lower than India, the average difference
was $27.21. In this contango periods,
average trade was 100.00 KT which is slightly lower than the average trade, 92.69 KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were 15 shipments from India to France. Of these shipments 7 of them were sent
during the contango periods. The average freight rate from India to Europe was $1,026,718. If
they had traded diesel/gasoil from Mersin,
the freight cost was going to be $677,634 more. Since the average trade was 92.69 KT, we assumed
the storage capacity as 100 KT. Also, we know that the average trade was in
every 54 days, so we assumed the storage
time as 30 days. With these assumptions average storage cost estimated as $278,076.00.
According to these results if Mersin becomes
a trading center for Europe for all
trading operations in the Netherlands
will gain $7,864,897.66. In this case the total loss of
Turkey for the 2015-2018 period, $-12,461,706.00. If this facility only operated
during the contango periods, then the total gain of France would be $19,050,000.00, and total loss of Turkey would be $25,996,532.00.
Table 58: Scenario 3A- Results
Scenario 3A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Average India Price |
416.37 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
414.00 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-2.37 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
359.29 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
332.07 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-27.21 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
100.00 |
KT |
Average Trade |
92.69 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
27 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
54 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
7 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
1,026,718 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
677,634 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
721,763 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,399,397 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-304,955 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
100 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
30 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
278,076.00 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Average) |
7.,864,897.66 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-12,461,706.00 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Contango Average) |
19,050,000.00 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-25,996,532.00 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “3A-“ case,
Turkey paid the storage cost of the product during the process. However, if the
buying countries had paid the storage cost,
then the results above would change as it is
shown in case “3A+”.
Table 59: Scenario 3A+ Results
Scenario 3A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
7 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
278,076 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Average) |
3,693,758 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-8,290,566 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Contango Average) |
17,103,468 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-24,050,000 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the
diesel/gasoil that is exported from
India. This time average price difference between Turkey and India increases to
$-48.50 per ton. During the contango period,
the average price difference is $-52.36
per ton. As a result, Netherlands Balance
using this price is $72,010,959.54 and Turkey expected to lose $76,607,767.87.
If we take only contango periods, then the
Netherlands gains $68,091,983.71
and Turkey loses $76,985,047.71.
Table 60: Scenario 3B- Results
Scenario 3B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Average India Price |
462.50 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
414.00 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-48.50 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
468.20 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
415.84 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-52.36 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
92.88 |
KT |
Average Trade |
92.69 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
52 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
54 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
14 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
1,026,718 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
677,634 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
721,763 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,399,397 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-304,955 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
100 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
30 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
278,076.00 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Average) |
72,010,959.54 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-76,607,767.87 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Contango Average) |
68,091,983.71 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-76,985,047.71 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 61: Scenario 3B+ Results
Scenario 3B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
14 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
278,076 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Average) |
67,839,820 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-72,436,628 |
USD |
Netherlands Balance (Contango Average) |
64,198,920 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-73,091,984 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 1,379 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods to the UK. The data showed
that UK imports diesel/gasoil from India in every 12 days. In Scenario 4A we
used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold from Turkey. The average India price
was $469.46 per tons, and the average Turkey
price was $467.45. During the contango periods, where Turkey price was lower than India, the
average difference was $2.01. In this
contango periods, average trade was 74.43 KT which
is slightly lower than the average trade, 78.24
KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were 80 shipments from India to the UK.
Of these shipments 42 of them were sent during the contango periods. The
average freight rate from India to Europe was 775,635. If they had traded from Mersin, the freight cost was going to be $511,919 more.
Since the average trade was 78,24 KT, we assumed the storage capacity as 85 KT. Also, we
know that the average trade was in every 12 days, so we assumed the storage time as 15 days. With these assumptions
average storage cost estimated as $117,354.38. According to these results if Mersin becomes
a trading center for Europe for all
trading operations at the UK will gain $23,225,938.66. In this case the total loss of Turkey for the 2015-2018 period, -26,980,474.44.
If this facility only operated during the contango periods, then the total gain
of UK would be $64,356,326.90, and total loss of Turkey would
be $74,285,210.65.
Table 62: Scenario 4A- Results
Scenario 4A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
United
Kingdom |
|
Average India Price |
469.46 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
467.45 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-2.01 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
454.05 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
433.47 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-20.59 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
74.43 |
KT |
Average Trade |
78.24 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
13 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
12 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
42 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
775,635 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
511,919 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
642,712 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,154,631 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-132,923 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354.38 |
USD |
UK Balance (Average) |
23,225,938.66 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-26,980,474.44 |
USD |
UK Balance (Contango Average) |
64,356,326.90 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-74,285,210.65 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “4A-“ case,
Turkey paid the storage cost of the product during the process. However, if the
buying countries had paid the storage cost,
then the results above would change as it is
shown in case “4A+”.
Table 63: Scenario 4A+ Results
Scenario 4A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
United
Kingdom |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
42 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
117,354 |
USD |
UK Balance (Average) |
13,837,589 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-17,592,124 |
USD |
UK Balance (Contango Average) |
59,427,443 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-69,356,327 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the diesel/gasoil
that is exported from India. This time
average price difference between Turkey and India increases to $-31.24 per ton.
During the contango period, the average price difference is $-33.77 per ton. As
a result, UK Balance using this price is $44,591,437.76 and
Turkey expected to lose $50,152,678.12. If we take only contango periods, then the UK gains $50,152,678.12 and Turkey loses $49,969,365.59.
Table 64: Scenario 4B- Results
Scenario 4B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
United
Kingdom |
|
Average India Price |
587.80 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
556.56 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-31.24 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
590.66 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
556.89 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-33.77 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
79.63 |
KT |
Average Trade |
81.12 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
29 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
28 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
16 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
17 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
683,758 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
451,280 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
595,096 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,046,376 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-88,662 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
121,676.47 |
USD |
UK Balance (Average) |
44,591,437.76 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-50,152,678.12 |
USD |
UK Balance (Contango Average) |
43,022,542.06 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-49,969,365.59 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 65: Scenario 4B+ Results
Scenario 4B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
United
Kingdom |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
16 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
17 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
121,676 |
USD |
UK Balance (Average) |
42,522,938 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-48,084,178 |
USD |
UK Balance (Contango Average) |
41,075,719 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-48,022,542 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 580 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods to Italy. The data showed
that Italy imports diesel/gasoil from Italy in every 119 days. In Scenario 5A
we used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold from Turkey. The average India price
was $414.66 per tons, and the average Turkey
price was $421.88. During the contango periods, where Turkey price was lower
than India, the average difference was $17.50.
In this contango periods, average trade
was 96.67 KT which is slightly lower than the average trade, 84.20
KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were eight shipments from India to Italy. Of these
shipments 3 of them were sent during the contango periods. The average freight
rate from India to Europe was $949,253. If they had traded diesel/gasoil from Mersin, the freight cost was going to be $626,507 more. Since
the average trade was 84,20 KT, we assumed the storage capacity as 100 KT. Also, we
know that the average trade was in every 119 days, so we assumed the storage time as 15 days. With these assumptions
average storage cost estimated as $126,294,38. According to these results if Mersin becomes a trading center for Europe for all trading operations at Italy will lose $3,290,382.23. In this case the total loss of Turkey for the 2015-2018 period, $-1,148,021.56. If
this facility only operated during the contango periods, then the total gain of
Italy would be $5,075,000.00, and total loss of Turkey would
be $-10,453,883.13.
Table 66: Scenario 5A- Results
Scenario 5A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Italy |
|
Average India Price |
414.66 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
421.88 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
7.22 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
431.58 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
414.08 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-17.50 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
96.67 |
KT |
Average Trade |
84.20 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
67 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
119 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
3 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
8 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
949,253 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
626,507 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
752,759 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,379,265 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-196,494 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
100 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000,00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
126,294.38 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Average) |
-3,290,382.23 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-1.148.021,56 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Contango Average) |
5,075,000.00 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-10,453,883.13 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “5A-“ case,
Turkey paid the storage cost of the product during the process. However, if the
buying countries had paid the storage cost,
then the results above would change as it is
shown in case “5A+”.
Table 67: Scenario 5A+ Results
Scenario 5A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Italy |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
3 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
8 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
126,294 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Average) |
-4,300,737 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-137,667 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Contango Average) |
4,696,117 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-10,075,000 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the diesel/gasoil
that is exported from India. This time
average price difference between Turkey and India increases to $-38.25 per ton.
During the contango period, the average price difference is $-57.70 per ton. As
a result, Italy balance using this price
is $27.335.077,55 and
Turkey expected to lose $31,773,481.34. If we take only contango periods, then Italy gains $33,463,873.33 and
Turkey loses $39.221.639,58.
Table 68: Scenario 5B- Results
Scenario 5B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Italy |
|
Average India Price |
460.12 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
421.88 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-38.25 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
503.11 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
445.42 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-57.70 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
96.67 |
KT |
Average Trade |
84.20 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
157 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
119 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
6 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
8 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
949,253 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
626,507 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
752,759 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
1,379,265 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-196,494 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
100 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
126,294.38 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Average) |
27,335,077.55 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-31,773,481.34 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Contango Average) |
33,463,873.33 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-39,221,639.58 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 69: Scenario 5B+ Results
Scenario 5B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Italy |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
6 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
8 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
126,294 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Average) |
26,324,723 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-30,763,126 |
USD |
Italy Balance (Contango Average) |
32,706,107 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-38,463,873 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
If Turkey had a diesel/gasoil trading center in the Mersin region from 2015 to today,
according to data, it had a chance to
re-export 639 KT diesel/gasoil in different contango periods to Europe. The data showed
that Europe imports diesel/gasoil from India in every 14 days. In Scenario 6A
we used ULSD ARA(FOB) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is bought from India, and we used ULSD MED(CIF) 10 ppm prices for the diesel/gasoil that is sold from Turkey. The average India price
was 464.80 per tons, and the average Turkey
price was $459.70. During the contango periods, where Turkey price was lower than India, the
average difference was $21.96. In this
contango periods, average trade was 46.57 KT which
is slightly higher than the average trade, 58.05 KT.
During the years between 2015 and 2018, there
were 14 shipments from India to European countries. Of these shipments 7 of
them were sent during the contango periods. The average freight rate from India
to Europe was $521,177. If they had traded diesel/gasoil from Mersin,
the freight cost was going to be $343,977 less. Since the average trade was 58.05 KT, we assumed
the storage capacity as 85 KT. Also, we know that the average trade was in
every 14 days, so we assumed the storage
time as 15 days. With these assumptions average storage cost estimated as $87,080.45.
According to these results if Mersin becomes
a trading center for Europe for all
trading operations in Europe will gain $3,163,265.26. In this case total loss of Turkey
for the 2015-2018 period, $9,208,888.64. If this facility only operated during the
contango periods, then the total gain of European countries would be $7,160,357.14, and total loss of Turkey would be $12,769,920.32.
Table 70: Scenario 6A- Results
Scenario 6A- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Average India Price |
464.80 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
459.70 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-5.09 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
465.11 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
443.14 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-21.96 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
46.57 |
KT |
Average Trade |
58.05 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
119 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
14 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
7 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
521,177 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
343,977 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
529,153 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
873,129 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
7,976 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
87,080.45 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
3,163,265.26 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-9,208,888.64 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
7,160,357.14 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-12,769,920.32 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
In “B” case we take GO-AG (FOB) price for the diesel/gasoil
that is exported from India. This time
average price difference between Turkey and India increases to $-54.79 per ton.
During the contango period, the average price difference is $-54.79 per ton.
As a result, Europe Balance using this
price is $34,902,465.44 and Turkey expected to lose $40,948,088.82.
If we take only contango periods, then
Italy gains $34,990,203.82 and Turkey loses $40,948,088.82.
Table 71: Scenario 6B- Results
Scenario 6B- Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Average India Price |
514.50 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price |
459.70 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference |
-54.79 |
USD/mT |
Average India Price During Contango Periods |
514.50 |
USD/mT |
Average Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
459.70 |
USD/mT |
Turkey - India Price Difference (Contango) |
-54.79 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade During Contango Periods |
58.05 |
KT |
Average Trade |
58.05 |
KT |
Average Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
14 |
Days |
Average Shipment Time |
14 |
Days |
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
11 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Jamnagar - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
521,177 |
USD |
Jamnagar - Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
343,977 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe Freight Rates on Average |
529,153 |
USD |
Via Mersin (Total) |
873,129 |
USD |
Freight Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
7,976 |
USD |
Storage Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average Storage Cost |
87,080.45 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
34,902,465.44 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-40,948,088.82 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
34,990,203.82 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-40,948,088.82 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 72: Scenario 6B+ Results
Scenario 6B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export Partners |
Europe |
|
Number of Shipment During Contango Periods |
11 |
Times |
Number of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Average Storage Cost |
87,080 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Average) |
33,944,580 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Average) |
-39,990,204 |
USD |
Europe Balance (Contango Average) |
34,032,319 |
USD |
Turkey Balance (Contango Average) |
-39,990,204 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 73: Scenario 7A- Results:
Scenario 7A- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
426.59 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
433.85 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
7.26 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
438.38 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
447.57 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
9.19 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
75.45 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
71.62 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
8 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
4 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
27 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Arabia
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
515,896 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
340,491 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
483,434 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
823,926 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-32,462 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,425.50 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
-38,976,724.98 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
27,979,628.50 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
-18,729,635.00 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
10,829,146.50 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 74: Scenario 7A+ Results
Scenario 7A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
27 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,426 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
-47,570,765 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
36,573,669 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
-21,630,124 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
13,729,635 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 75: Scenario 7B- Results
Scenario 7B- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
473.83 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
433.85 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-39.98 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
485.09 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
442.53 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-42.56 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
71.40 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
71.62 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
4 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
4 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
66 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Arabia
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
515,896 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
340,491 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
499,067 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
839,559 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-16,829 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,425.50 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
230,427,617.70 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-242,675,337.90 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
200,579,308.83 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-212,669,391.83 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 76: Scenario 7B+ Results
Scenario 7B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
66 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
80 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,426 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
221,833,578 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-234,081,298 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
193,489,226 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-205,579,309 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 77: Scenario 8A- Results
Scenario 8A- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
430.41 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
418.41 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-12.00 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
477.75 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
488.92 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
11.17 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
59.98 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
81.15 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
33 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
33 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
6 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Arabia
- France Freight Rates on Average |
579,651 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
382,570 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
718,373 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,100,943 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
138,722 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,722.27 |
USD |
France
Balance (Average) |
9,185,614.99 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-17,050,505.00 |
USD |
France
Balance (Contango Average) |
-12,725,049.44 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
5,868,787.44 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 78:Scenario 8A+ Results
Scenario 8A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
6 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,722 |
USD |
France
Balance (Average) |
7,846,670 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-15,711,560 |
USD |
France
Balance (Contango Average) |
-14,581,311 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
7,725,049 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 79:Scenario 8B- Results
Scenario 8B- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
475.52 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
418.41 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-57.11 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
536.05 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
481.33 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-54.72 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
59.98 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
81.15 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
33 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
33 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
11 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Arabia
- France Freight Rates on Average |
579,651 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
382,570 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
684,811 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,067,381 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
105,160 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,722.27 |
USD |
France
Balance (Average) |
49,822,067.81 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-57,317,774.63 |
USD |
France
Balance (Contango Average) |
-12,725,049.44 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
5,868,787.44 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 80: Scenario 8B+ Results
Scenario 8B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
11 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,722 |
USD |
France
Balance (Average) |
48,483,123 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-55,978,830 |
USD |
France
Balance (Contango Average) |
-14,581,311 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
7,725,049 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 81: Scenairo 9A- Results
Scenario 9A- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
501.37 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
510.72 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
9.35 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
491.50 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
471.71 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-19.79 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
76.35 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
80.99 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
41 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
21 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
12 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
44 |
Times |
Arabia
- Belgium Freight Rates on Average |
626,369 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
413,404 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
610,647 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,024,051 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-15,722 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,485.34 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
-32,615,465.56 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
22,961,875.97 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
18,133,322.92 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-24,591,147.01 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 82: Scenario 9A+ Results
Scenario 9A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
12 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
44 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,485 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
-37,960,821 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
28,307,231 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
16,675,499 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-23,133,323 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 83: Scenairo 9B- Results
Scenario 9B- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
546.48 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
510.72 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-35.77 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
560.84 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
520.39 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-40.45 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
79.80 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
80.99 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
22 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
21 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
40 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
44 |
Times |
Arabia
- Belgium Freight Rates on Average |
626,369 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
413,404 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
605,773 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,019,177 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-20,597 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,485.34 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
128,370,288.83 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-137,809,394.49 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
129,122,688.92 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-138,982,102.55 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 84:Scenario 9B+ Results
Scenario 9B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
40 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
44 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
121,485 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
123,024,934 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-132,464,039 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
124,263,275 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-134,122,689 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 85: Scenario 10A- Results
Scenario 10A- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
485.13 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
497.32 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
12.18 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
389.25 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
370.38 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-18.88 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
92.40 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
92.73 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
130 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
57 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
4 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Arabia
- Netherlands Freight Rates on Average |
719,842 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
475,095 |
USD |
Mersin
- Netherlands Freight Rates on Average |
694,778 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,169,874 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-25,063 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
139,092.00 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
-16,570,095.18 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
9,859,662.00 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
6,976,200.00 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-12,532,568.00 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 86: Scenario 10A+ Results
Scenario 10A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
4 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
139,092 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
-18,656,475 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
11,946,042 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
6,419,832 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-11,976,200 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 87: Scenario 10B- Results
Scenario 10B- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
526.08 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
497.32 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-28.76 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
548.06 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
507.54 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-40.52 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
94.61 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
92.73 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
66 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
57 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
12 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Arabia
- Netherlands Freight Rates on Average |
719,842 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
475,095 |
USD |
Mersin
- Netherlands Freight Rates on Average |
670,824 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,145,919 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-49,018 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
139,092.00 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
40,742,901.88 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-47,094,014.69 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
45,999,606.16 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-52,668,710.16 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 88: Scenario 10B+ Results
Scenario 10B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
12 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
15 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
139,092 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
38,656,522 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-45,007,635 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
44,330,502 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-50,999,606 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 89: Scenario 11A- Results
Scenario 11A- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
465.82 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
470.14 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
4.32 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
501.75 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
457.00 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-44.75 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
66.75 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
60.95 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
82 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
78 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
2 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Arabia
- UK Freight Rates on Average |
432,610 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
285,523 |
USD |
Mersin
- UK Freight Rates on Average |
377,117 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
662,640 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-55,493 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
91,422.27 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
-2,284,612.12 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-3,110,606.36 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
5,974,125.00 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-11,156,969.55 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 90: Scenario 11A+ Results
Scenario 11A+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
2 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
91,422 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
-3,290,257 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-2,104,961 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
5,791,280 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-10,974,125 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 91: Scenario 11B- Results
Scenario 11B- Results |
||
Supplier |
Saudi Arabia |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
511.69 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
470.14 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-41.56 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
530.41 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
478.25 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-52.16 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
65.05 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
60.95 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
72 |
Days |
Average
Shipment Time |
78 |
Days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
9 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Arabia
- UK Freight Rates on Average |
432,610 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
285,523 |
USD |
Mersin
- UK Freight Rates on Average |
483,406 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
768,929 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
50,796 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
Days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
91,422.27 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
27,302,454.31 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-33,866,856.88 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
30,536,066.06 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-36,358,866.51 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 92: Scenario 11B+ Results
Scenario 11B+ Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
9 |
Times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
11 |
Times |
Average
Storage Cost |
91,422 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
26,296,809 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-32,861,212 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
29,713,266 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-35,536,066 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 93: Scenario 12A- Results
Scenario
12A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
473.83 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
433.85 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-39.98 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
544.92 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
498.58 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-46.34 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
72.95 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
71.62 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
8 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
8 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
200 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
223 |
times |
Arabia
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
556,756 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
367,459 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
557,458 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
924,917 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
703 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,425.50 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
638,407,419.86 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-667,520,004.40 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
676,112,516.44 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-702,597,616.44 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 94:Scenario 12A+ Results
Scenario 12A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
200 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
223 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
107,426 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
614,451,533 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-643,564,118 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
654,627,416 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-681,112,516 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 95:Scenario 13A- Results
Scenario 13A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
535.87 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
481.52 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-54.35 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
546.58 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
491.22 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-55.37 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
73.65 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
75.42 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
51 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
50 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
37 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
38 |
times |
Arabia
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
565,288 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
373,090 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
631,912 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,005,002 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
66,623 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
113,128.71 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
153,234,381.59 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-165,064,953.75 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
150,872,680.12 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-160,058,442.55 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 96:Scenario 13A+ Results
Scenario 13A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
France |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
37 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
38 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
113,129 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Average) |
148,935,490 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-160,766,063 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
146,686,918 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-155,872,680 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 97:Scenario 14A- Results
Scenario 14A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
531.42 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
499.25 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-32.17 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
555.25 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
516.09 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-39.16 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
80.22 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
81.91 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
15 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
15 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
46 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
53 |
times |
Arabia
- Belgium Freight Rates on Average |
664,309 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
438,444 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
631,230 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,069,674 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-33,079 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000,00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
122,870.09 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
141,404,964.74 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-151,163,888.74 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
144,504,462.65 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-155,156,486.99 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 98: Scenario 14A+ Results
Scenario 14A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Belgium |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
46 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
53 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
122,870 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Average) |
134,892,850 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-144,651,774 |
USD |
Belgium
Balance (Contango Average) |
138,852,438 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-149,504,463 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 99: Scenario 15A- Results
Scenario 15A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Italy |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
521.33 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
492.32 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-29.01 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
574.74 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
525.40 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-49.34 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
65.69 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
66.88 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
27 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
37 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
18 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
25 |
times |
Arabia
- Italy Freight Rates on Average |
556,036 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
366,984 |
USD |
Mersin
- Italy Freight Rates on Average |
492,274 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
859,259 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Italy |
-63,762 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
100,314.60 |
USD |
Italy
Balance (Average) |
50,098,163.07 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-56,011,980.39 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
58,336,330.13 |
USD |
Italy
Balance (Contango Average) |
-65,141,992.93 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 100: Scenario 15A+ Results
Scenario 15A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Italy |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
18 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
25 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
100,315 |
USD |
Italy
Balance (Average) |
47,590,298 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-53,504,115 |
USD |
Europe
Balance (Contango Average) |
56,530,667 |
USD |
Italy
Balance (Contango Average) |
-63,336,330 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 101: Scenario 16A- Results
Scenario 16A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
543.99 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
510.50 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-33.49 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
505.30 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
462.53 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-42.77 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
93.68 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
93.64 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
27 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
29 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
26 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
30 |
times |
Arabia
- Netherlands Freight Rates on Average |
882,043 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
582,149 |
USD |
Mersin
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
708,645 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
1,290,794 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-173,398 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
140,455.71 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
99,270,352.01 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-103,282,080.21 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
104,184,513.39 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-112,836,361.96 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 102: Scenario 16A+ Results
Scenario 16A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Netherlands |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
26 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
30 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
140,456 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Average) |
95,056,681 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-99,068,409 |
USD |
Netherlands
Balance (Contango Average) |
100,532,665 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-109,184,513 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 103: Scenario 17A- Results
Scenario 17A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Spain |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
533.60 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
488.75 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-44.85 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
537.31 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
490.22 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-47.09 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
51.83 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
50.43 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
25 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
25 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
34 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
35 |
times |
Arabia
- Spain Freight Rates on Average |
363,086 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
239,637 |
USD |
Mersin
- Spain Freight Rates on Average |
389,057 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
628,694 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
25,971 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
75,643.71 |
USD |
Spain
Balance (Average) |
78,248,975.21 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-86,805,474.75 |
USD |
Spain
Balance (Contango Average) |
82,982,713.84 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-90,554,600.13 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 104: Scenario 17A+ Results
Scenario 17A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
Spain |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
34 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
35 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
75,644 |
USD |
Spain
Balance (Average) |
75,601,445 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-84,157,945 |
USD |
Spain
Balance (Contango Average) |
80,410,828 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-87,982,714 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 105:Scenario 18A- Results
Scenario 18A- Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Average
Arabia Price |
559.17 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price |
520.20 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference |
-38.97 |
USD/mT |
Average
Arabia Price During Contango Periods |
569.30 |
USD/mT |
Average
Turkey Price During Contango Periods |
526.86 |
USD/mT |
Turkey
- Arabia Price Difference (Contango) |
-42.44 |
USD/mT |
Average
Trade During Contango Periods |
75.56 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
73.19 |
KT |
Average
Shipment Time During Contango Periods |
8 |
days |
Average
Shipment Time |
15 |
days |
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
26 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
28 |
times |
Arabia
- Europe Freight Rates on Average |
578,689 |
USD |
Arabia
- Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
381,934 |
USD |
Mersin
- UK Freight Rates on Average |
552,047 |
USD |
Via
Mersin (Total) |
933,981 |
USD |
Freight
Rate Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-26,642 |
USD |
Storage
Capacity Needed |
85 |
KT |
Average
Storage Day |
15 |
days |
Storage
Facility Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000.00 |
USD |
Storage
Cost (Per KT) |
100 |
USD/day |
Average
Storage Cost |
109,790.89 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
80,618,960.73 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-87,947,129.34 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
83,378,944.67 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-91,233,507.88 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Table 106: Scenario 18A+ Results
Scenario 18A+ Results |
|
|
Supplier |
Arabia - India |
ARA(FOB) |
Facility
Owner |
Turkey |
MED(CIF) |
Re-export
Partners |
UK |
|
Number
of Shipment During Contango Periods |
26 |
times |
Number
of Shipment (Total) |
28 |
times |
Average
Storage Cost |
109,791 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Average) |
77,544,816 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Average) |
-84,872,984 |
USD |
UK
Balance (Contango Average) |
80,524,381 |
USD |
Turkey
Balance (Contango Average) |
-88,378,945 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
SECTION 2: India
builds a diesel/gasoil storage facility in
Mersin Region.
In this case, India itself comes and builds a
storage facility to Mersin Region. This time estimating the costs and gainings
are much harder. Since the Arabian Gulf or Platts West India price is much
higher than MED prices, we assume that India will continue to sell their diesel/gasoil
with the price of their region. However, since for European countries will
buying from Mersin region, their transportation costs will decrease. As it is shown in the table below, the average
shipping cost of Aframax is $66.476, and
since the voyage time is decreasing for 11 days, the European countries may pay
less for the transportation.
On the India side, due to the IMO2020
decisions, they will be forced to use low sulphur fuel oil for the
transportation in order to operate in MED.However, if Turkey and Eastern
Mediterranian countries decide to stay out of this policy, they may benefit from low sulpphur fuel costs and lower
voyage times.
In this sector the companies or the states are
not vertically integrated, so each part
of the process is responsible for their own
revenues. Therefore there may be
unexpected challenges as well.
Another issue is that due to the increasing
capacities on the refineries, forward curve prices are decreasing in the
future, so storing the diesel/gasoil would not be the best option for the
buyer's side. However, decreasing the voyage time 66% by using Mersin will
always remain as an advantage.
Scenario 19 also applies for the case where
Saudi Arabia builds a diesel/gasoil storage facility in Turkey.
Table 107: Scenario 19 Results
Scenario 19
Results |
||
Supplier |
India |
GO-AG(FOB) |
Facility Owner |
India |
|
Re-export
Partners |
Europe |
|
Average India
Price |
513.33 |
USD/mT |
Average India
Price During Contango Periods |
523.67 |
USD/mT |
Average Trade
During Contango Periods |
78.25 |
KT |
Average
Trade |
78.24 |
KT |
Average Shipment
Time |
11.57 |
days |
Number of
Shipment per Year on Average |
33.00 |
times |
Number of
Shipment During Contango Periods |
74.00 |
times |
Number of
Shipment (Total) |
80.00 |
times |
Daily Shipping
Costs (Aframax) |
66,476.00 |
USD |
Jamnagar -
Europe Freight Rates on Average |
775,634.71 |
USD |
Jamnagar -
Mersin Freight Rates on Average |
511,918.91 |
USD |
Mersin - Europe
Freight Rates on Average |
642,712.03 |
USD |
Via Mersin
(Total) |
1,154,630.93 |
USD |
Freight Rate
Difference After Mersin For Europe |
-132,922.68 |
USD |
Storage Capacity
Needed |
85.00 |
KT |
Average Storage
Day |
15.00 |
days |
Storage Facility
Cost (Turkey) |
5,000,000,00 |
USD |
Storage Cost
(Per KT) |
100.00 |
USD/day |
Average Storage
Cost |
117,354.38 |
USD |
Source: Thomson
Reuters Eikon
Terminology
Draft is the number that shows how much a
ship has underwater, in other words, it gives the amount between the ship has
on its lowest point and the waterline. “The ship cannot float in any water less
than its draft.”
Demurrage is the fee when a cargo stays at
the terminal for too long. Here, “long” means more than seven days since generally the ports offer 4-7 days; and if it
exceeds the free time that the port gives, the cargo gets a fee.
Clean/Dirty Vessels The "dirty"
vessels carry the "black" or dirty cargoes such as crude oil, heavy
fuel oils, asphalt etc. The
"clean" vessels carry the refined "white" clean products
such as gasoline, jet fuels, kerosene etc.
Chemical carriers would also fall into the "clean" category.
Arbitrage Curve: Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency,
or commodities in different markets or derivative forms to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset. When we
apply the concept to logistics, the vessels may take
advantage of price differences in different ports, and they can wait for the right moment to
supply. For this, they use the arbitrage
curve.
The fixture is a process where the shipping
broker is involved in matching the right vessel
with the right cargo and rate required.
Table
108: Refineries in Russian Federation (The yellow
marked refineries the largest Euro 5 standard
diesel suppliers.)
Oil Refineries in
Russia Federation |
|||
City |
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity (bpd) |
|
Omsk refinery |
Gazprom Neft PJSC |
442,000 |
|
Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery |
Surgutneftegas OJSC |
410,000 |
|
Ryazan refinery |
Rosneft |
381,800 |
|
Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery |
LUKOIL PJSC |
340,960 |
|
Volgogradneftepererabotka refinery |
LUKOIL PJSC |
314,140 |
|
Yaroslavlnefteorgsintez refinery |
Slavneft-YANOS JSC Gazprom Neft PJSC/Rosneft |
300,880 |
|
Permnefteorgsintez Refinery |
LUKOIL PJSC |
263,400 |
Moscow |
Moscow refinery |
Gazprom Neft PJSC |
243,600 |
|
Tuapse refinery |
Rosneft |
240,000 |
|
NOVATEK Purovskiy ZPK LLC |
NOVATEK JSC |
220,000 |
|
Gazprom neftekhim Salavat |
GAZPROM PJSC |
200,000 |
Tiumen |
Antipinskiy refinery |
NEW STREAM |
180,800 |
Samara |
Novokuibyshevsk refinery |
Rosneft |
176,000 |
|
Komsomolsk refinery |
Rosneft |
175,400 |
Samara |
Syzran refinery |
Rosneft |
170,000 |
Krasnojarsk |
Achinsk refinery |
Rosneft |
150,000 |
|
TAIF-NK |
TAIF NK JSC |
147,000 |
Ufa |
Novo-Ufa refinery |
Bashneft PJSOC |
142,000 |
|
TANECO refinery |
TATNEFT PJSC |
140,400 |
Samara |
Kuibyshev refinery |
Rosneft |
140,000 |
|
Saratov refinery |
Rosneft |
140,000 |
Ufa |
Ufimsky refinery |
Bashneft PJSOC |
132,400 |
|
Yaroslavl |
SLAVNEFTEKHIM IP ZAO |
132,000 |
|
Yuzhnorusskiy refinery LLC |
Yuzhnorusskiy refinery LLC |
132,000 |
|
Orsknefteorgsintez refinery |
ForteInvest JSC |
120,400 |
|
Afipsky refinery |
NefteGazIndustriya LLC |
120,320 |
|
NOVATEK-Ust-Luga LLC |
NOVATEK JSC |
120,000 |
|
Nizhnevartovskoe
NPO LLC (NK RosneftOJSC) |
Nizhnevartovskoe NPO LLC |
104,960 |
|
Khabarovsk refinery |
Independent Petroleum Company JSC |
100,240 |
|
Novoshakhtinskiy zavod nefteproduktov JSC |
Novoshakhtinsky plant of oil products JSC |
100,000 |
|
Ukhtaneftepererabotka refinery |
LUKOIL PJSC |
80,000 |
|
LLC Gazprom dobycha Astrakhan |
GAZPROM PJSC |
74,354 |
Ufa |
Ufaneftekhim refinery |
Bashneft PJSOC |
68,587 |
|
Krasnodareconeft refinery CJSC |
Krasnodareconeft refinery CJSC |
60,000 |
|
NefteKhimServisJSC |
Yayskiy neftepererabatyvayuschiy zavod |
60,000 |
|
Samaratransneft – terminal LLC (Samaraneft-servisLLC) |
Samaraneft-servis LLC |
40,000 |
|
Mariysky refinery |
Mariysky refinery LLC |
32,000 |
|
Slavyansk ECO LLC |
Slavyansk ECO LLC |
30,000 |
Krasnodar |
Usinskiy refinery LLC |
Enisey LLC |
26,000 |
|
Ilsky refinery LLC |
Kubanskaya neftegazovaya kompaniya LLC |
20,000 |
|
Kambit NK LLC |
Kambit NK LLC |
12,000 |
|
Transbunker-Vanino LLC (GK TransbunkerLLC) |
Transbunker-Vanino LLC |
12,000 |
|
VPK-Oil LLC (Kochenevskiy refinery) |
Kochenevsky refinery VPK-Oil LLC |
12,000 |
|
Volkhovneftekhim LLC |
Volkhovneftekhim LLC |
10,000 |
|
Kargapolskiy zavod nefrasov LLC |
UK Uralneft LLC |
8,000 |
|
BITUM LLC |
BITUM LLC |
7,200 |
Tiumen |
Purneftepererabotka LLC |
Rosneft |
7,000 |
|
TPP Kogalymneftegas |
TPP Kogalymneftegaz LLC |
7,000 |
|
Svetloyarskiy refinery |
EkoTON LLC |
6,400 |
|
Kaspiy-1 CJSC |
NK Rosneft- Dagneft OJSC |
6,000 |
|
OOO Trans Tek |
TRANS TEK OOO |
6,000 |
|
Krasnoleninskuy refinery |
Rosneft |
5,600 |
|
NPZ Yuzhnoy Bunkernoy kompanii |
NPZ Yuzhnoy Bunkernoy kompanii |
4,900 |
|
Itatsky refinery LLC |
Itatsky refinery LLC |
4,800 |
|
Sibrospererabotka CJSC |
Sibrospererabotka CJSC |
4,800 |
|
NVF Grifon CJSC |
NVF Grifon CJSC |
4,000 |
|
OOO GK Processing Refinery |
OOO GK Processing |
4,000 |
|
Strezhevskoy |
Strezhevskoy refinery |
4,000 |
|
VSP Krutogorskiy refinery JSC |
VSP Krutogorskiy refinery JSC |
4,000 |
|
Smolneft LLC |
Smolneft LLC |
3,600 |
|
Kamenskiy nefteperegonniy zavod JSC |
Kamenskiy nefteperegonniy zavod JSC |
3,000 |
|
Neftemash Story |
Neftemash Stroy LLC |
3,000 |
|
PNK Volga-Alyans |
PNK Volga-Alyans |
2,400 |
|
SibProm refinery |
Sibprom LLC |
2,400 |
|
Dzotov F.T. (private entrepreneur) |
Dzotov F.T. (private entrepreneur) |
2,000 |
|
Proizvodstvennaya kompaniya DITEKO JSC |
Proizvodstvennaya kompaniya DITEKO JSC |
2,000 |
|
TK Rosinvest LLC |
TK Rosinvest LLC |
2,000 |
Ufa |
TPP Urayneftegaz |
TPP Urayneftegaz LLC |
2,000 |
|
Vareganneft JSC |
Vareganneft JSC |
2,000 |
|
Yakutskaya
Toplivno-energeticheskaya Kompaniya JSC |
Yakutskaya
Toplivno-energeticheskaya Kompaniya JSC |
2,000 |
|
Izhevskiy neftepererabatyvayuschiy zavod LLC |
Izhevskiy neftepererabatyvayuschiy zavod LLC |
1,800 |
|
Safonovo refinery LLC |
Safonovo refinery LLC |
1,600 |
|
Aleksandrovskiy refinery LLC |
Aleksandrovskiy refinery LLC |
1,400 |
|
NS-Oil LLC |
Prominvest CJSC |
1,400 |
|
Karabashskaya UKPN |
Karabashskaya
UKPN (NGDU Leninogorskneft», TatneftCJSC) |
1,200 |
|
Neftebitum-KNGK LLC |
Neftebitum-KNGK LLC |
1,200 |
|
NKTSES I K CJSC |
NKTSES I K CJSC |
1,200 |
|
NP Nafta LLC |
NPO Kataliz LLC |
1,200 |
|
Tomskneftegazpererabotka LLC (Tomsky refinery LLC) |
Tomskneftegazpererabotka LLC |
1,200 |
|
NK
Rosneft-Kabardino-Balkarskaya toplivnaya kompaniya OJSC |
Rosneft |
1,000 |
|
Sibaysky bitumny tsekh |
BitumOil LLC |
800 |
|
Sibirsky barrel LLC |
Sibirsky barrel LLC |
800 |
|
GK Bogandinskiy neftepererabatyvayuschiy zavod |
GK Bogandinskiy neftepererabatyvayuschiy zavod |
720 |
|
Pervy zavod JSC |
Pervy zavod JSC |
540 |
|
Bologoenefteprodukt LLC |
Bologoenefteprodukt LLC |
500 |
|
NK YangpurJSC |
NK Yangpur JSC |
500 |
|
NordVestTerminal LLC |
NordVestTerminal LLC |
500 |
|
Nazievskaya toplivnaya kompaniya CJSC |
Nazievskaya toplivnaya kompaniya CJSC |
400 |
Tiumen |
Severtransservis JSC |
Severtransservis JSC |
400 |
|
Asekeevskaya neftyanaya kompaniya LLC |
Asekeevskaya neftyanaya kompaniya LLC |
300 |
|
Energostroysnabekspertiza LLC (Kemerovskiy mini-refinery |
Energostroysnabekspertiza LLC (Kemerovskiy mini-refinery) |
300 |
|
NPZ Krasnoyarsk Refinery |
OOO NPZ Krasnoyarsk |
251 |
|
AlbashneftLLC |
AlbashneftLLC |
|
|
Elkhovskoe NPU |
NGDU Elkhovneft - Tatneft OJSC |
|
Tiumen |
Gazprom dobycha Yamburg LLC |
Gazprom PJSC |
|
Krasnojarsk |
Khimzavod |
Khimzavod-filial JSC Krasmash |
|
|
Retsikl LLC |
Retsikl LLC |
|
|
Sosnogorskiy
GPZ Gazprom Pererabotka LLC |
GAZPROM PJSC |
|
|
Tsekh po
podgotovke nefti, gaza i vody ¹2 RN-Krasnodarneftegaz LLC |
RN-Krasnodarneftegaz LLC |
|
|
Uralorgsintez JSC |
SiburKholding OJSC |
|
Table
109: Refineries in India
Refineries in India |
||
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity |
Jamnagar Secondary |
Reliance Petroleum Ltd |
660,000 |
Jamnagar |
Reliance Industries Ltd |
580,000 |
Vadinar(Jamnagar) |
Essar Oil Ltd |
405,000 |
Panipat |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
300,000 |
Mangalore |
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals
Ltd |
300,000 |
Gujarat |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
274,000 |
Koyali |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
274,000 |
Mumbai |
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd |
240,000 |
Manali |
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd |
210,000 |
Kochi |
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd |
190,000 |
Guru Gobind Refinery |
HCPL-Mittal Energy Ltd |
180,000 |
Visakhapatnam |
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd |
166,000 |
Mathura |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
160,000 |
Haldia |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
158,000 |
Mumbai |
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd |
130,000 |
Barauni |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
120,000 |
Bina |
Bharat Oman Refineries Bina |
120,000 |
Numaligarh |
Numaligarh Refinery Ltd |
60,000 |
Bongaigaon |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
47,000 |
Guwahati |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
20,000 |
Nagapattnam |
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd |
20,000 |
Digboi |
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd |
13,000 |
Tatipaka |
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd |
1,600 |
Table
110: Refineries in Netherlands
Refineries in Netherlands |
|||
City |
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity (Barrels per Day) |
Rotterdam |
Pernis |
Royal Dutch Shell PLC |
404,000 |
Rotterdam |
BP Rotterdam |
BP |
377,000 |
Rotterdam |
Esso Rotterdam |
Esso Nederland BV |
190,000 |
Vlissingen |
Zeeland |
Total SA |
180,000 |
Rotterdam |
Europoort |
Gunvor Group |
88,000 |
Rotterdam |
Europoort (Condensate Fractionation Plant) |
Vitol |
87,000 |
Source: Eikon
Table 111: Refineries in Greece
Refineries in Greece |
|||
City |
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity |
Corinth |
Motor Oil Hellas |
185,000 |
|
Aspropyrgos |
HELLENIC ASPROPYRGOS SA |
150,000 |
|
Thessaloniki |
Hellenic |
93,000 |
Source: Eikon
Table 112: Refineries in Italy
Refineries in Italy |
|||
City |
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity |
Sarroch |
Saras SpA |
300,000 |
|
Genoa |
Sannazzaro |
Eni SpA |
200,000 |
Milazzo |
ENI |
200,000 |
|
Novara |
Sarpom |
Exxon Mobil Corp |
180,000 |
ISAB Sud |
Lukoil |
180,000 |
|
Augusta |
Exxon Mobil Corp |
175,000 |
|
ISAB Nord |
Lukoil |
130,000 |
|
Taranto |
Taranto |
Eni SpA |
120,000 |
Ancona |
Api Anonima Petroli Italiana SpA |
85,000 |
|
Rome |
Livorno |
Eni SpA |
84,000 |
Genoa |
Iplom |
Iplom SpA |
40,000 |
Alma Petroli |
Alma Petroli SpA |
10,900 |
Source: Eikon
Table 113: Refineries in Spain
Refineries in Spain |
|||
City |
Refinery |
Operating Company |
Capacity |
Cadiz |
San Roque |
Compania Espanola de Petroleos SAU |
240,000 |
Petronor Bilbao |
Repsol SA |
220,000 |
|
Cartagena |
Repsol SA |
220,000 |
|
Huelva |
Huelva |
Cepsa |
190,000 |
Torragona |
Tarragona |
Repsol SA |
186,000 |
Puertollano |
Repsol SA |
150,000 |
|
La Coruna |
La Coruna |
Repsol SA |
120,000 |
Castellon |
Castellon |
BP Castellon |
110,000 |
Appendix B
(Diesel Exports and Imports of Countries)
Table 114: Russian Federation Diesel Exports
Diesel Exports of Russia by Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Import |
Turkey |
32.15 |
13.98% |
Germany |
29.72 |
12.93% |
United Kingdom |
26.38 |
11.48% |
Netherlands |
15.40 |
6.70% |
Greece |
14.88 |
6.47% |
France (Northern) |
12.11 |
5.27% |
Poland |
10.09 |
4.39% |
Italy |
8.90 |
3.87% |
Romania |
8.38 |
3.64% |
France (Southern) |
7.48 |
3.25% |
Spain |
6.98 |
3.04% |
Belgium |
6.39 |
2.78% |
Egypt |
4.36 |
1.90% |
Bulgaria |
3.76 |
1.64% |
Tunisia |
3.57 |
1.55% |
Malta |
3.45 |
1.50% |
Cyprus |
3.32 |
1.44% |
Lebanon |
3.31 |
1.44% |
Denmark |
2.85 |
1.24% |
Finland |
2.54 |
1.10% |
United States |
2.00 |
0.87% |
Slovenia |
1.75 |
0.76% |
Mauritania |
1.56 |
0.68% |
Ireland |
1.39 |
0.61% |
N/A |
1.17 |
0.51% |
Algeria |
1.15 |
0.50% |
Latvia |
1.12 |
0.49% |
Sweden |
1.12 |
0.49% |
Morocco |
1.09 |
0.48% |
Ghana |
1.07 |
0.47% |
Gibraltar |
1.06 |
0.46% |
Georgia |
1.06 |
0.46% |
Estonia |
0.89 |
0.39% |
Argentina |
0.85 |
0.37% |
Ukraine |
0.79 |
0.34% |
Libya |
0.69 |
0.30% |
Brazil |
0.57 |
0.25% |
Taiwan |
0.51 |
0.22% |
Norway |
0.50 |
0.22% |
China |
0.43 |
0.18% |
Puerto Rico |
0.35 |
0.15% |
United Arab Emirates |
0.35 |
0.15% |
Singapore |
0.34 |
0.15% |
Cote DIvoire |
0.32 |
0.14% |
Saudi Arabia |
0.30 |
0.13% |
Dominican Republic |
0.30 |
0.13% |
Senegal |
0.27 |
0.12% |
Togo |
0.17 |
0.07% |
Moldova |
0.14 |
0.06% |
Gambia |
0.12 |
0.05% |
Venezuela |
0.12 |
0.05% |
Bahamas |
0.11 |
0.05% |
India |
0.11 |
0.05% |
Qatar |
0.06 |
0.03% |
Turkmenistan |
0.04 |
0.02% |
Total |
230.00 |
100.00% |
Table 115:
Diesel
Exports of India in 2017 (12 Months)
Indian Diesel Exports by Countries
In 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Exports |
Turkey |
13.09 |
37.70% |
Egypt |
6.43 |
18.52% |
United
Kingdom |
6.15 |
17.71% |
France |
2.13 |
6.13% |
Gibraltar |
1.55 |
4.46% |
Belgium |
1.45 |
4.19% |
Netherlands |
1.27 |
3.66% |
Israel |
0.98 |
2.81% |
Cyprus |
0.65 |
1.87% |
Spain |
0.57 |
1.63% |
Morocco |
0.46 |
1.31% |
Total |
34.74 |
100.00% |
Table 116:
Diesel
Exports of Netherlands by Country in 2017
Diesel Exports of Netherlands by
Country 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Millon Barrels |
% of Total Export |
United
Kingdom |
12.89 |
21.55% |
Togo |
7.52 |
12.57% |
Singapore |
6.69 |
11.17% |
France
|
4.95 |
8.27% |
United
States |
3.34 |
5.58% |
Spain |
2.46 |
4.12% |
Senegal |
2.14 |
3.58% |
Ghana |
1.53 |
2.56% |
Brazil |
1.31 |
2.19% |
Sweden |
1.29 |
2.15% |
Norway |
1.19 |
1.99% |
Guinea |
1.12 |
1.87% |
Puerto
Rico |
1.12 |
1.87% |
Morocco |
1.08 |
1.80% |
Denmark |
0.96 |
1.61% |
Germany |
0.92 |
1.53% |
Argentina |
0.90 |
1.50% |
Italy |
0.77 |
1.28% |
China |
0.65 |
1.09% |
Saudi
Arabia |
0.59 |
0.99% |
Turkey |
0.54 |
0.90% |
Nigeria |
0.52 |
0.87% |
Oman |
0.44 |
0.73% |
Bahamas |
0.40 |
0.67% |
Ireland |
0.39 |
0.65% |
Belgium |
0.36 |
0.60% |
Malta |
0.32 |
0.54% |
Benin |
0.29 |
0.49% |
Angola |
0.29 |
0.49% |
Finland |
0.26 |
0.43% |
Gibraltar |
0.26 |
0.43% |
Mauritania |
0.25 |
0.42% |
Algeria |
0.23 |
0.38% |
Libya |
0.23 |
0.38% |
Canada |
0.23 |
0.38% |
Russian
Federation |
0.22 |
0.37% |
Slovenia |
0.21 |
0.36% |
Portugal |
0.21 |
0.36% |
Cote
DIvoire |
0.21 |
0.35% |
South
Africa |
0.14 |
0.23% |
Congo-Kinshasa
/ Democratic Republic of Congo |
0.13 |
0.21% |
Ecuador |
0.11 |
0.18% |
Cyprus |
0.05 |
0.09% |
Poland |
0.05 |
0.09% |
Bulgaria |
0.04 |
0.06% |
Australia |
0.03 |
0.06% |
TOTAL |
59.82 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table
117: Diesel Imports of Netherlands by Country in 2017
Diesel Imports of Netherlands by Country 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Millon Barrels |
% of Total Imports |
Russian Federation |
15.40 |
19.93% |
Latvia |
12.71 |
16.45% |
United States |
7.28 |
9.42% |
France |
6.56 |
8.49% |
Saudi Arabia |
4.97 |
6.43% |
United Kingdom |
4.24 |
5.49% |
Singapore |
3.19 |
4.13% |
Finland |
2.21 |
2.86% |
Spain |
2.04 |
2.64% |
Poland |
1.94 |
2.51% |
Estonia |
1.92 |
2.48% |
Qatar |
1.55 |
2.00% |
Sweden |
1.41 |
1.82% |
Italy |
1.27 |
1.65% |
India |
1.27 |
1.64% |
Nigeria |
1.20 |
1.55% |
Belgium |
1.17 |
1.51% |
Canada |
1.5 |
1.35% |
Norway |
0.93 |
1.20% |
Indonesia |
0.74 |
0.96% |
United Arab Emirates |
0.63 |
0.82% |
Malaysia |
0.52 |
0.68% |
South Korea |
0.52 |
0.67% |
Portugal |
0.31 |
0.41% |
Gibraltar |
0.29 |
0.38% |
Bahamas |
0.28 |
0.36% |
Libya |
0.26 |
0.34% |
Lithuania |
0.26 |
0.34% |
Senegal |
0.22 |
0.29% |
Denmark |
0.22 |
0.28% |
Egypt |
0.20 |
0.25% |
Equatorial Guinea |
0.18 |
0.23% |
Germany |
0.15 |
0.20% |
Bulgaria |
0.078 |
0.10% |
Ireland |
0.073 |
0.09% |
Romania |
0.037 |
0.05% |
TOTAL |
77.26 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table 118: Diesel Exports of Greece by
Countries in 2017
Diesel Exports of Greece By Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Export |
Italy |
6.85 |
21% |
Turkey |
6.60 |
20% |
Cyprus |
3.52 |
11% |
Egypt |
3.10 |
9% |
Lebanon |
2.37 |
7% |
Slovenia |
1.91 |
6% |
Libya |
1.60 |
5% |
Spain |
1.29 |
4% |
Malta |
0.73 |
2% |
Singapore |
0.72 |
2% |
India |
0.52 |
2% |
Tunisia |
0.43 |
1% |
Russian Federation |
0.43 |
1% |
Ukraine |
0.31 |
1% |
Albania |
0.29 |
1% |
United States |
0.29 |
1% |
Togo |
0.26 |
1% |
South Korea |
0.25 |
1% |
|
0.21 |
1% |
Latvia |
0.21 |
1% |
Bulgaria |
0.18 |
1% |
Croatia |
0.14 |
0% |
Gambia |
0.13 |
0% |
Senegal |
0.10 |
0% |
Georgia |
0.08 |
0% |
Romania |
0.05 |
0% |
Moldova, Republic of |
0.04 |
0% |
Montenegro |
.003 |
0% |
Total |
32.67 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table 119: Diesel Imports of Greece by
Countries in 2017
Diesel Imports of Greece by Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Import |
Russian Federation |
14.88 |
72% |
Poland |
0.99 |
5% |
Turkey |
0.63 |
3% |
Spain |
0.56 |
3% |
Bulgaria |
0.55 |
3% |
Italy |
0.55 |
3% |
United States |
0.53 |
3% |
Romania |
0.52 |
3% |
Singapore |
0.41 |
2% |
Cyprus |
0.34 |
2% |
Egypt |
0.32 |
2% |
Israel |
0.26 |
1% |
Ukraine |
0.07 |
0% |
France |
0.05 |
0% |
Turkmenistan |
0.04 |
0% |
Total |
20.74 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table 120: Diesel Exports of Italy by
Countries in 2017
Diesel Exports of Italy by Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Barrels |
% of Total Imports |
Spain |
10.32 |
17% |
Slovenia |
7.94 |
13% |
France (Southern) |
6.07 |
10% |
Croatia |
4.82 |
8% |
Turkey |
4.23 |
7% |
Tunisia |
2.88 |
5% |
Morocco |
2.70 |
5% |
Lebanon |
2.70 |
5% |
Malta |
2.43 |
4% |
Algeria |
2.36 |
4% |
Libya |
2.23 |
4% |
Netherlands |
1.27 |
2% |
Egypt |
1.15 |
2% |
Albania |
1.12 |
2% |
Gibraltar |
0.78 |
1% |
Brazil |
0.77 |
1% |
United States |
0.74 |
1% |
Russian Federation |
0.67 |
1% |
Greece |
0.55 |
1% |
Ghana |
0.52 |
1% |
Togo |
0.49 |
1% |
Saudi Arabia |
0.39 |
1% |
Ukraine |
0.37 |
1% |
Bahamas |
0.24 |
0% |
Bulgaria |
0.23 |
0% |
Malaysia |
0.23 |
0% |
Ireland |
0.23 |
0% |
France (Northern) |
0.21 |
0% |
Cyprus |
139.120 |
0% |
United Arab Emirates |
138.446 |
0% |
Sierra Leone |
131.573 |
0% |
Senegal |
104.386 |
0% |
Denmark |
104.340 |
0% |
Canada |
76.516 |
0% |
TOTAL |
59.32 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table 121: Diesel Imports of Italy by
Country in 2017
Diesel Imports of Italy by Country 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Imports |
Russian Federation |
8.90 |
22.47% |
Spain |
7.39 |
18.65% |
Greece |
6.85 |
17.31% |
Saudi Arabia |
4.48 |
11.33% |
United States |
2.70 |
6.83% |
Malta |
2.36 |
5.97% |
Portugal |
1.31 |
3.30% |
Netherlands |
0.98 |
2.46% |
France |
0.95 |
2.39% |
Gibraltar |
0.78 |
1.98% |
United Arab Emirates |
0.65 |
1.65% |
Bulgaria |
0.48 |
1.20% |
Singapore |
0.45 |
1.13% |
Belgium |
0.25 |
0.63% |
Turkey |
0.23 |
0.59% |
Malaysia |
0.21 |
0.52% |
Bahamas |
0.14 |
0.35% |
Algeria |
0.12 |
0.30% |
Qatar |
0.10 |
0.26% |
Canada |
0.10 |
0.25% |
Norway |
0.09 |
0.22% |
Egypt |
0.08 |
0.21% |
Romania |
0.002 |
0.00% |
TOTAL |
39.60 |
100,00% |
Source: Eikon
Table 122: Diesel Exports of Bulgaria by
Countries in 2017
Diesel Exports of Bulgaria
by Countries in 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Export |
Turkey |
8.40 |
57% |
Malta |
2.14 |
14% |
Egypt |
0.77 |
5% |
Greece |
0.55 |
4% |
Cyprus |
0.53 |
4% |
Georgia |
0.51 |
3% |
Italy |
0.48 |
3% |
Russian
Federation |
0.47 |
3% |
Algeria |
0.18 |
1% |
Croatia |
0.17 |
1% |
France
|
0.16 |
1% |
Spain |
0.14 |
1% |
Lebanon |
0.11 |
1% |
Albania |
0.10 |
1% |
Netherlands |
0.08 |
1% |
Morocco |
0.05 |
0% |
Ukraine |
0.02 |
0% |
Romania |
0.01 |
0% |
Total |
14.86 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table 123: Diesel Imports of Bulgaria by
Countries in 2017
Diesel Imports of Bulgaria
by Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Export |
Russian
Federation |
3.76 |
72% |
Turkey |
0.37 |
7% |
Spain |
0.25 |
5% |
Italy |
0.23 |
4% |
Greece |
0.18 |
4% |
Israel |
0.09 |
2% |
Ukraine |
0.08 |
2% |
Romania |
0.07 |
1% |
Turkmenistan |
0.06 |
1% |
United
Kingdom |
0.05 |
1% |
Netherlands |
0.04 |
1% |
Egypt |
0.01 |
0% |
Total |
5.20 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
Table
124: Diesel Suppliers of Turkey in 2017
Diesel Imports of Turkey by Countries 2017 |
||
Country Name |
# of Barrels |
% of Total Import |
Russian Federation |
32.15 |
41.78% |
India |
13.10 |
17.03% |
Bulgaria |
8.40 |
10.92% |
Greece |
6.60 |
8.57% |
Italy |
4.23 |
5.50% |
United States |
1.78 |
2.32% |
Singapore |
1.57 |
2.04% |
Romania |
1.23 |
1.60% |
Israel |
1.21 |
1.58% |
Saudi Arabia |
1.20 |
1.56% |
Canada |
0.89 |
1.16% |
Malta |
0.67 |
0.87% |
Spain |
0.58 |
0.75% |
Netherlands |
0.54 |
0.70% |
Egypt |
0.49 |
0.64% |
Georgia |
0.43 |
0.56% |
Bahrain |
0.39 |
0.51% |
Cyprus |
0.30 |
0.39% |
Belgium |
0.27 |
0.35% |
Tunisia |
0.21 |
0.27% |
Portugal |
0.14 |
0.19% |
Qatar |
0.14 |
0.18% |
United Kingdom |
0.14 |
0.18% |
France |
0.13 |
0.17% |
Malaysia |
0.09 |
0.13% |
Turkmenistan |
0.04 |
0.05% |
Total |
76.93 |
100.00% |
Source: Eikon
Table 125: Diesel Imports of Turkey by
Discharge Ports in 2017
Diesel Imports of Turkey by Discharge Ports in 2017 |
||
Port Name |
# of Million Barrels |
% of Total Export |
Marmara Erglisi |
19,29 |
25% |
Mersin |
14,74 |
19% |
Aliaga |
7,92 |
10% |
Gebze |
7,16 |
9% |
Samsun |
6,36 |
8% |
Tutuncifilik |
5,69 |
7% |
Trabzon |
3,33 |
4% |
Dortyol Oil Terminal |
2,69 |
3% |
Yarimca |
1,56 |
2% |
Antalya |
1,51 |
2% |
Iskenderun |
1,17 |
2% |
Istanbul |
1,02 |
1% |
Izmit |
0,98 |
1% |
Hopa |
0,88 |
1% |
Yalova |
0,76 |
1% |
Toros Terminal (Ceyhan) |
0,74 |
1% |
Nemrut Bay (Izmir satellite port) |
0,59 |
1% |
Diliskelesi |
0,24 |
0% |
Ceyhan |
0,15 |
0% |
Izmir |
0,09 |
0% |
Ambarli |
0,08 |
0% |
Golcuk |
0,02 |
0% |
Total |
76,93 |
100% |
Source: Eikon
According to
EPDK 2016 data (2017 is not published yet), Turkey imported 894.763.800 tonnes of gasoil products from Bulgaria it was 9% of the
total gasoil import. This information is
consistent with our 2017 analysis in EIKON.
Think:
1. Marmara Ereğlisinde depolama tesisi kuruyorlar ve hatta plats da fiyat
bile quote ettirmeyi düşünüyorlar. (Marmara Ereglisi Istanbul ve Canakkale Bogazlari
sorunsalindan kurtulamaz. Onemli olan lojistik sorunlarin bertaraf edildigi bir
stoklama cozumu bulmak.)
2. Sidi Kerir (Mısır’daki Suudi Arabistan dolum tesisi) hukuki statüsüne
bakılacak. (Burada dikkatli olunmasi gereken Sidi Kerir’in
ham petrol stok alani oldugu ve dinamiklerinin mazot/dizel icin
ortusmeyebilecegi)
3. Ship from Mersin to France can be cheaper.
4. Ship to Mersin (from India) may use cheaper
oil. Thus, Mersin has a cost advantage.