INTRODUCTION

 

This page had been maintained by Ekin Sarıyıldırım, Gökberk Bilgin and Ipek Korkmaz as a part of the project studied during ECON 318 lecture at Bilkent University for the spring 2018 semester. All the information gathered here are from external sources; we try to give the source of information as much as we can.* The opinions expressed in this work are solely unbiased analysis of the work rendered. This project explores the possibility whether a “trading centerand/or “pricing location” for MED (Mediterranean) diesel deliveries in Turkey is economically and technically feasible. The exercise is based on the feasibility study of a trading center that is importing diesel either from the East of Suez. As a practical and reliable approach, Jamnagar and Jubail are taken as two reference points both with potential and keen to export diesel in MED market. This is an interesting exercise to conduct since in case of its application; it will increase the energy supply security of Turkey and could create competitive advantage to the supplier counterparties. Additionally, the new deals linked to this route could provide discounts on the diesel purchases, and Turkey may profit from the storage facilities that are planned to construct. The information that is used here is valid by May 21, 2018.

 

TECHNICAL ASPECT

 

When the crude oil is processed, it yields different products; diesel (or gasoil) is also a product that has to be produced by the refineries through to the crude oil processing. How much each of these products produced is determined by various factors such as the complexity of refineries, the type of crude oil refined and the economy of the products in the market. The quality of these products may differ as to the configuration of the refineries change.

 

Even though there are some restrictions towards the diesel consumption in European countries, the diesel demand will rather increase. Turkey is one of the largest importers of diesel/gasoil in the global market. USA and Russia are the biggest exporting countries, alongside the other major players. India and Saudi Arabia are some of the major suppliers for MED because of their refinery configuration, product specifications and the proximity to the market. Thus, India’s and Saudi Arabia’s continuously increasing refinery capacities can supply additional volumes of ultra-low sulfur diesel that meets the Europe’s demand. As a result, the volume of diesel/gasoil trade is growing. Turkey’s location and its local demand could create a potential for the diesel/gasoil trade from the East of Suez to Southern Europe to be carried via Turkey; Mersin port for our base scenario.

 

Clean vessels (also known as clean tankers) are the core part of the diesel/gasoil physical trade. The specification of a vessel depends on many different factors, such as the distance between the trading locations and cargo size. These vessels usually move on specific trade routes.Our project’s main focus is the diesel/gasoil trade from the East of Suez to MED via Mersin, Turkey, we have analyzed the cost of a diesel/gasoil vessel for two cases; the vessel stops either at Mersin Port, or direct shipping to the consumption location i.e. Southern Europe. For our calculations, it is worth bearing in mind that we use some certain methodology and assumptions.

 

To calculate a vessel’s voyage cost, some assumptions have been made. Suez Canal Cost is added for the routes that are starting from India or Saudi Arabia since for the vessel to arrive at Mersin, it must pass the Suez Canal. We are further assuming that the diesel/gasoil is staying in the storage facility, in port of Mersin, according to the demand of the importing countries.

 

To understand whether this operation is feasible or not, we have developed several scenarios. We have simulated how a trade would be profitable if there was a diesel/gasoil storage area in Mersin. In one of our simulations, we have assumed that Turkish state will have a diesel/gasoil storage facility and they will re-export to Europe during contango periods. Our findings showed that due to the price differences between Arabian Gulf and Mediterranian if Turkey sells with current prices, it might face losses. However, in the long-run, if Turkey can become a trading and price reference point for the region, it will have the power to price the products according to regional demand.

 

In the second analysis, we have assumed that the storage facility belongs to either India or Saudi Arabia, or both of them. We have checked the average trade to each European country from India and Saudi Arabia. In the case where India owns the storage, our findings showed that by increasing the diesel/gasoil amount that is supplied to Turkey, a storage facility could be operated and the stored diesel/gasoil can meet the demands of France with a more profitable way and the transportation time will reduce 66%. If the aforementioned case is not profitable and European countries do not choose to buy from Mersin, the stored diesel/gasoil can be used domestically as well.

 

Overall, the results show that main issue of becoming a hub is understanding the pricing mechanism and finding a way to control it in order to gain profit. Transportation and storage are also essential elements. Since the diesel/gasoil producers and transporters are not from the same company or same country, building a model where every party involved win is pretty hard.

 

In our simulation, we have used both spot prices and forward curvess separately. Also, even though we have assumed countries to own the storage facilities; in real life, private companies and traders own them. Therefore, our results may differ from the real numbers. However, we believe that they are sufficient to understand whether building and operating a storage facility in Mersin is feasible or not.

 

CONCLUSION

 

The competition for the diesel/gasoil market in MED is getting more eminent among the major suppliers. As a part of this competition, it is known that countries like India and Saudi Arabia are enhancing their refining capacity in order to produce more diesel/gasoil that can target MED, particularly Southern Europe and Turkey. With Turkey being one of the countries with the fastest growing diesel/gasoil demand, Turkey becomes a feasible partner for those countries in their physical trade of diesel/gasoil to MED. The main challenge in this competetion against NWE or US is that East of Suez cargoes have to pass throught Suez Canal. This could cause additional cost for the cargoes, as well as, delays in voyage times due to Suez Canal’s heavy traffic.

 

A diesel/gasoil storage facility in Mersin seems to be a feasible solution for these third parties. However, it is important that these countries would have the ownership of these facilities both in investment and operatorship. This is critical for two main reasons; firstly, the cost of this facility has to be covered by the suppliers which are having the majority share of the profit in this physical trading. Secondly, their operatorship could avoid conflict of interests among the Turkish local market as none of these countries have a direct investor in Turkish domestic diesel/gasoil market. As this storage facility is thought to be a free-zone, so out of Turkish customs zone, then this would make the economics of this business model work.

 

Our findings showed that due to the price differences between Arabian Gulf and Mediterranian if Turkey sells with current prices, it will face losses. However, in the long-run, if Turkey can become a hub for the region, it will have the power to price the products according to its interest. Also, becoming a reliable ally for the energy transportation security, Turkey may increase its political power on the Eastern Mediterranian, and in the future, it can be a part of the alternative energy corridor projects. In either case, Turkey’s strong diesel/gasoil demand and its location creates a good opportunity for Turkey.

 

In the case where India, one of the potential suppliers, owns the storage, our findings showed that by increasing the diesel/gasoil amount that is supplied to Turkey, a storage facility could be operated and the stored diesel/gasoil can meet the demands of France with a more profitable way and the transportation time will reduce 66%. If the aforementioned case is not profitable and European countries do not choose to buy from Mersin, the stored diesel/gasoil can be used domestically as well. The main purpose of the Mersin diesel/gasoil storage facility is to provide a promixity to MED market for the East of Suez suppliers (i.e., Saudi Arabia & India) that they can have a quick access in the OTC diesel/gasoil market. Especially in contango periods, the storage facility could create a vital competitive advantage as an oppose to floating storage operations which are much more expensive than onshore storage options.

 

The outcome of the work still relies on much deeper analysis in order to calculate optimum storage capacity (i.e., Lavera) needed in Mersin, the average storage fees would apply, the terms for stored diesel/gasoil could get in Turkish market and the freight economics between Mersin to Southern Europe which is very limited at the moment. The capabilities of the participants of these projects are naturally limited to make these highly complex analysis and calculations. These analysis need to be done with more data, and in collaboration with counterparties, preferably from any of the supplier countries, India or Saudi Arabia. This is also important to understand the business expectations from the suppliers so that whole project could be mutually profitable. Some of the data such as freight rates are needed for the analysis of this project however the relevant data could not be found as it is expensive to purchase. This is another important reason why this project needs to be completed in a much higher level.

 

Conclusively, a diesel/gasoil storage facility for East of Suez products to re-export to MED sounds like a feasible idea. This could also yield a benchmark price for Eastern Mediterranean diesel/gasoil market which has a totally different market dynamics comparing to West Mediterranean. This will be another gain for the regional countries, especially Turkey, to set their own benchmark prices that could meet the regional needs. A system that can help East of Suez suppliers (i.e., Saudi Arabia & India) that they can by-pass Suez traffic in sudden high demand periods, which are generally OTC environment, is accepted to have a good potential and it is worth having deeper analysis.

 

 

Disclaimer: There are some certain, and necessary assumptions have been made throughout the cost calculation process. We were not able to gather data from some sources, such as World Scale Index. We are taking the vessel Aframax as 70,000 DWT. However, it can be up to 100,000 DWT. We do not have diesel forward curve prices for the second month and onwards, so we have estimated by using the spot and one month forward prices. Mersin port costsare overall estimated numbers. They do not represent the true values.

 

1. Crude Oil

ygu ssever koç

Crude oil is the source of all petroleum products. Crude oil is classified based on physical characteristics and chemical composition, using terms such as “light” or “heavy” as well as “sweet” or “sour”. “American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity is the conventional way of measuring how heavy or dense a given stream of crude is.Crude oil with a low API gravity is considered as a heavy crude oil and typically has a larger yield of lower-valued products.” Crude can also be classified according to its sulfur content.

 

Crude oil with low sulfur content is classified as “sweet”, crude oil with a higher sulfur content is classified as “sour.” Sulfur content is considered as an undesirable characteristic with respect to both processing and end-product quality. Therefore, sweet crude is typically more desirable and valuable than sour crude. Crude oil varies in price, usefulness, and environmental impact.

 

When the crude oil is processed, there are some specific products that will be obtained from that specific crude oil (this depends on the natural quality of the crude oil). Thus, crude oil yield means, depending on the quality of the crude oil, the high or low valued products obtained as an outcome of the processing. In this case, same oil may have different “crude oil yield” for different refineries.

 

 

1.1. Crude Oil Processing

 

Figure 1: Crude Oil Distillates

 

Yuvarlatılmış Dikdörtgen: MIDDLE DISTILLATES
•	Kerosene
•	Diesel
•	Heating oil 
•	Jet fuel 


Yuvarlatılmış Dikdörtgen: HEAVY DISTILLATES
•	Lubricating oil
•	Wax
•	Asphalt
•	Heavy Fuel Oil
Yuvarlatılmış Dikdörtgen: LIGHT DISTILLATES
•	LPG
•	Gasoline
•	Naphta
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Lighter crude has a higher percentage of light hydrocarbons that can be recovered with simple distillation at a refinery.Heavy crude has density approaching or even exceeding that of water. Usually, heavy crude requires extra refining to produce more valuable and in-demand products. https://www.thebalance.com/the-basics-of-crude-oil-classification-1182570

 

Fundamentals of Crude Oil Classification:

 

1) API gravity measures the density of crude oils.

 

2) Sulfur content measures the degree of pureness of crude oil, the level of impurity that each crude oil type contains.

 

3) Sulfur content higher than 0.5% indicates a high level of impurity (sour crude oil) that has to be removed.

 

4) Sulfur content lower than 0.5% implies a low level of impurity (sweet crude oil).

 

Due to the technical points mentioned above, different crude types produce the products in different yields and quality. Example tables below can be analyzed to see how the yields of products could change by crude grade, refinery configuration or region:

 

Table 1: Arabian Crude Straight Run Product Streams

Light

Medium

Heavy

Crude, °API

38,80

30,70

28,20

Sulfur, % wt

1,10

2,51

2,84

Light Naphtha

Cut range, °F

68-212

68-212

68-212

Yield, % vol

10,5

9,4

7,9

Gravity, °API

77,4

78,4

80,1

Sulfur, % wt

0,056

0,007

0,0028

RVP, Psi

6,9

7,9

10,2

Paraffins, % vol

87,4

89,7

89,6

Naphthenes, % vol

10,7

8,8

9,5

Aromatics, % vol

1,9

1,5

0,9

RON clear

54,7

48,2

58,7

Heavy Naphtha

Cut range, °F

212-302

212-302

212-302

Yield, % vol

9,4

7,4

6,8

Gravity, °API

58,8

59,6

60,6

Sulfur, % wt

0,057

0,019

0,018

Paraffins, % vol

66,3

67,8

70,3

Naphthenes, % vol

20

20,8

21,4

Aromatics, % vol

13,7

11,4

8,3

Kerosene

Cut range, °F

302-455

302-455

302-455

Yield, % vol

18,4

13,5

12,5

Gravity, °API

48

48,9

48,3

Sulfur, % wt

0,092

0,12

0,19

Paraffins, % vol

58,9

59,9

58

Naphthenes, % vol

20,5

21,9

23,7

Aromatics, % vol

20,6

18,2

18,3

Freeze Point, °F

-67

-72

-84

Smoke Point, mm

26

23

26

Luminometer no.

57

55

60

Aniline Point, °F

133

139

138

Kin cSt at -30 °F

5,09

4,63

4,74

Kin cSt at 100 °F

1,13

1,09

1,12

Light Gas Oil

Cut range, °F

455-650

455-650

455-650

Yield, % vol

21,1

17,4

16,4

Gravity, °API

37,3

37,2

35,8

Sulfur, % wt

0,81

1,09

1,38

Pour Point, °F

10

0

5

Aniline Point, °F

166

156

156

Kin cSt at 100 °F

3,34

3,15

3,65

Kin cSt at 210 °F

1,32

1,22

1,4

Heavy Gas Oil

Cut range, °F

650-1049

650-1049

650-1049

Yield, % vol

30,6

30,5

26,3

Gravity, °API

24,8

322

21,8

Sulfur, % wt

1,79

2,87

2,88

Pour Point, °F

100

75

90

Aniline Point, °F

195

172

172

Kin cSt at 100 °F

49

62,2

62,5

Kin cSt at 210 °F

65,65

7,25

7,05

Atmosferic residue

Cut range, °F

650+

650+

650+

Yield, % vol

38

50

53,1

Gravity, °API

21,7

14,4

12,3

Sulfur, % wt

2,04

4,12

4,35

Pour Point, °F

75

55

55

Con Carb. %wt

4,5

10

13,2

Kin cSt at 100 °F

146

1570

5400

Kin cSt at 210 °F

12,4

54

106

Vacuum Residue

Cut range, °F

1049+

1049+

1049+

Yield, % vol

7,4

19,5

26,8

Gravity, °API

11,5

3,8

4

Sulfur, % wt

3

5,85

5,6

Pour Point, °F

80

120

120

Con Carb. %wt

19

22,8

12,4

Kin cSt at 210 °F

392

19335

13400

Source: Handbook of Petroleum Processing

Table 2: Typical Products Made from a 42-Gallon Barrel of Refined Crude Oil in the U.S.

 

Products

Amount

Asphalt

3%

Liquefied Petroleum

4%

Jet Fuel

10%

Other Products

18%

Diesel Fuel & Heating Oil

23%

Gasoline

47%

Source: Canary USA (Other products (the 18%) include chemical feedstocks (for plastics, fertilizers etc.), lubricants.)

 

 

Table 3: Mediterranean Crude Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration

Mediterranean Yields

Harmonized System

Harmonized System

High conversion VGO hydrocracker/Visbreaker

High conversion VGO hydrocracker/Visbreaker

Volume % Yield

Es Sider

Urals

Es Sider

Urals

LPG

2,37%

4,41%

3,96%

5,75%

Gasoline

19,27%

13,06%

23,65%

19,97%

Naphtha

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Kerosene

7,37%

7,60%

13,67%

14,04%

Diesel

31,90%

30,10%

40,74%

42,80%

HSFO

0,00%

41,85%

0,00%

16,34%

LSFO

35,74%

0,00%

15,01%

0,00%

Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products

 

 


Table 4: NWE Crude Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration

North West European Yields

Harmonized System

Harmonized System

Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker

Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker

Volume % Yield

Brent

Urals

Brent

Urals

LPG

4,14%

4,41%

6,42%

6,41%

Gasoline

20,85%

13,06%

34,60%

27,11%

Naphtha

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Kerosene

7,29%

7,60%

13,40%

9,18%

Diesel

32,31%

30,10%

34,03%

37,24%

HSFO

0,00%

41,85%

0,00%

17,53%

LSFO

32,00%

0,00%

8,99%

0,00%

Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products

 

 

Table 5: Singapore Crude Oil Yields of Refinery Configuration

Singapore Yields

Harmonized System

Harmonized System

Harmonized System/ Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker

Harmonized System/ Fluid Catalytic Cracker+Visbreaker

Volume % Yield

Dubai

Tapis

Dubai

Tapis

LPG

2,52%

1,77%

4,10%

4,14%

Gasoline

10,05%

17,02%

19,52%

26,04%

Naphtha

6,50%

6,08%

6,50%

6,08%

Kerosene

12,41%

20,99%

13,46%

23,42%

Diesel

22,98%

28,93%

37,44%

36,79%

HSFO

42,26%

0,00%

15,63%

0,00%

LSFO

0,00%

21,22%

0,00%

0,37%

Source: Handbook of Petroleum Products


 

Figure 2: Stages of Crude Oil Refinery Process

 

crude%20oil%20process.png

 

 

VIDEO: Refining is the transformation operation allowing us to obtain many products that market demands. Depending on the crude oil’s quality, four main operations are done to process crude oil. These are; separation, conversion, improvement and mixing. The crude oil is processed in the distillation oven which the petroleum products have different boiling temperatures from lightest on the top and the heaviest on the bottom. The lightest is LPG (butane and propane), and then comes petrol (for an automobile) and naphtha. From naphtha’s processing, we obtain olefins and aromatics. On the bottom, we obtain kerosene (aircraft fuel and domestic heating fuel) and then comes diesel (for diesel engines). Lastly, we obtain paraffin, lubricating oils, and heavy fuels (production of industrial heat).

 

2. Diesel/gasoil

 

Diesel/gasoil is a type of middle distillate fuel (light, middle and heavy distillates have different characteristics where their functions and markets are also different). 

Diesel fuel is more efficient than gasoline because it contains 10% more energy per gallon than gasoline. However, there arefew kinds of diesel/gasoil fuel. Just as gasoline is rated by its octane, diesel fuel is rated by its cetane, which indicates how easy it is to ignite and how fast it burns.

2.1. Main Usage of Diesel

 

Table 6: Key Consuming Sectors of Diesel Sector-Wise Diesel Consumption in USA, 2016

 

KEY CONSUMING SECTORS OF DIESEL

SECTOR-WISE DIESEL CONSUMPTION (USA)

Name of the sector

Diesel consumption

Trucks

27.8%

Agriculture

12.2%

Personal SUVs and cars

12.1%

Buses

9.9%

Commercial taxis

8.3%

Three wheelers

6.2%

Industry

6.2%

Generation sets

3.9%

Railways

3.8%

Bulk

Mobile towers

1.7%

consumers

Aviation and shipping

0.8%

Others

7.1%

 

Source: Parasadenwala

 

3. Trade for diesel/gasoil

 

The following data is derived by using Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). In consumption calculation, stock changes are also included. All tables are ordered according to highest 2017H2 values.

 

Table 7: Major Output in Diesel (Thousand Barrels)

 

Total Diesel Output (Thousand Barrels)

Country Name

H1 2016

H22016

H12017

H22017

United States of America

144,814

152,221

146,724

151,222

China

104,318

108,709

107,839

113,181

India 

62,445

64,692

64,247

70,631

Russian Federation 

46,457

47,872

47,007

48,370

Saudi Arabia

32,397

31,525

31,687

33,777

Germany 

27,918

29,239

27,452

29,536

Korea

28,169

28,724

28,491

29,488

Japan 

27,613

28,720

27,650

29,225

Canada

17,901

18,573

19,760

20,649

Italy 

19,180

21,100

19,042

17,582

France

14,780

17,425

15,498

17,195

Spain

15,841

17,240

16,580

17,174

United Kingdom

11,890

13,503

12,410

12,862

Netherlands

11,978

11,776

12,267

11,473

Belgium

7,900

7,349

7,572

8,386

Source: JODI Database

 

Table 8: Major Diesel Importers (Thousand Barrels)

Total Diesel Importers (Thousand Barrels)

Country Name

H1 2016

H22016

H12017

H22017

France

13,539

13,224

13,524

13,236

Germany 

12,721

11,123

12,475

11,331

Netherlands

11,586

11,585

10,903

10,801

Turkey

8,046

7,905

7,364

10,432

United Kingdom

10,153

9,557

8,895

9,530

Singapore

9,872

9,493

8,609

8,579

Belgium

7,237

6,619

6,720

6,325

United States of America

5,533

4,976

4,755

4,508

Italy 

2,993

2,909

4,228

3,103

Spain

3,300

2,570

3,296

2,805

Saudi Arabia

6,058

7,289

3,424

2,009

Greece

621

790

617

814

Canada

1,054

786

810

808

Bulgaria

492

675

620

592

India 

1,076

129

1,334

418

Source: JODI Database

 

Table 9: Major Diesel Exporting Countries in the World (Thousand Barrels)

Total Diesel Expors (Thousand Barrels)

Country Name

H1 2016

H22016

H12017

H22017

United States of America

          35,798  

          36,480  

          40,055  

          43,959  

Russian Federation 

          31,465  

          28,291  

          33,173  

          24,377  

Saudi Arabia

          17,568  

          17,310  

          16,469  

          20,317  

India 

          15,699  

          18,446  

          15,855  

          20,286  

Netherlands

          18,389  

          18,742  

          18,770  

          18,465  

Singapore

          14,621  

          15,211  

          15,012  

          15,497  

Korea

          14,435  

          14,763  

          14,196  

          15,100  

China

             7,911  

          10,618  

             9,605  

          11,181  

Belgium

             7,258  

             7,231  

             7,504  

             7,857  

Japan 

             4,928  

             5,344  

             4,685  

             6,220  

Italy 

             5,456  

             6,235  

             6,039  

             6,089  

Germany 

             5,743  

             6,036  

             5,655  

             5,714  

Spain

             2,535  

             4,024  

             3,666  

             4,452  

Greece

             4,358  

             4,773  

             4,778  

             4,088  

Canada

             4,816  

             3,592  

             5,087  

             4,045  

Source: JODI Database

 


Table 10: Major Diesel Consumers in the World (Thousand Barrels)

Major Diesel Consumers (Thousand Barrels) 

Country Name

H12016

H12016/Per Capita

H22016

H22016/Per Capita

H12017

H12017/Per Capita

H22017

H22017/Per Capita

Population

United States of America

112,622

0.035%

123,438

0.038%

109,008

0.033%

107,204

0.033%

325.7

China 

97,558

0.007%

96,516

0.007%

99,057

0.007%

102,029

0.007%

1,379

India

47,945

0.004%

46,627

0.004%

49,677

0.004%

50,390

0.004%

1,324

Germany

35,710

0.043%

34,070

0.041%

33,526

0.041%

34,566

0.042%

82.67

France

26,980

0.040%

29,827

0.045%

27,304

0.041%

28,804

0.043%

66.90

Russian Federation

15,241

0.011%

19,705

0.014%

14,083

0.010%

23,868

0.017%

144.30

Japan 

22,885

0.018%

23,633

0.019%

23,232

0.018%

23,075

0.018%

127.00

United Kingdom

18,946

0.029%

20,250

0.031%

18,997

0.029%

19,882

0.030%

65.64

Canada 

13,563

0.037%

15,999

0.044%

15,495

0.043%

17,331

0.048%

36.29

Turkey

13,637

0.017%

14,499

0.018%

14,018

0.018%

16,678

0.021%

79.51

Spain 

16,801

0.037%

15,245

0.033%

15,896

0.035%

15,215

0.033%

45.56

Saudi Arabia 

20,459

0.063%

22,182

0.069%

18,730

0.058%

15,153

0.047%

32.28

Italy

17,063

0.028%

18,086

0.030%

17,823

0.029%

14,491

0.024%

60.60

Korea 

13,941

0.027%

13,715

0.027%

14,668

0.029%

14,391

0.028%

51.25

Belgium

8,103

0.071%

6,088

0.054%

6,134

0.054%

6,329

0.056%

11.35

Source: JODI Database

 

3.1 Major Players in Diesel Market

 

This section provides information for the countries that are the main players in the diesel market. To show an example, we started with Russian Federation. We have managed to collect every information we gather so far to have a better understanding. We intend to expand this analysis to every country that is relevant to this project. To the best of our knowledge on the topic improves we will update each section and at the end, we hope that this study will help on deciding whether Turkey can play a better role in this market or not.

 

3.1.1 Russian Federation

Figure 3: Overall Refineries in Russian Federation

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Russian Federation was the largest diesel exporter for Europe in 2017. Above m where the Russian refineries are located. Names of those refineries and their capacities can be found in Appendix A. Highlighted refineries in the appendix are the largest Euro 5 standard diesel suppliers. Below can also be found the locations of the 13 largest refineries (more than 200,000 bpd) to understand the density of the regions.

 

Figure 4: Most Productive Refineries in Russian Federation

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Trade partners of the Russian Federation can be seen in the following map. For more information, please check the table in Appendix B.

 

Figure 5: Russian Diesel Exports

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 


The Russian diesel/gasoil export ports are shown in the following table. According to these results, both the Black Sea and Baltic Sea have almost equal importance.

Table 11: Russian Diesel Exports by Ports in 2017

Russian Diesel Exports by Sea in 2017 (Million Barrels)

Black Sea

Baltic Sea

Barents Sea

 

Total Exp.

Share in Total

 

Total Exp.

Share in Total

 

Total Exp.

Share in Total

Novorossiysk

59.01

25,81%

Primorsk

72.46

31,65%

Murmansk

3.28

1,43%

Tuapse

40.52

17,70%

Vysotsk

24.88

10,87%

 

Kavkaz

6.26

2,73%

St.Petersburg

12.01

5,24%

 

Taman

2.20

0,96%

Ust-Luga

3.47

1,52%

 

Azov

0.61

0,27%

Baltiysk

2.76

1,20%

 

Rostov-on-Don

0.23

0,10%

Kaliningrad

0.95

0,41%

 

Taganrog

0.13

0,06%

 

 

Temryuk

0.07

0,03%

 

 

Volgograd

0.04

0,02%

 

 

Total

109.15

47,67%

Total

116.52

50,89%

Total

3.28

1,43%

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 


Also since Russia has a rough climate, we have checked whether there is any seasonality in diesel/gasoil loadings due to weather conditions. The results show that there are no significant limitations.

 

Figure 6: Russian Diesel/Gasoil Exports by Months in 2017 (Thousand Barrels/day)

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 


3.1.2 India

 

Figure 7: Refineries in India

 

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Figure 8: Diesel Exports of India in 2017

 


Table 12: Diesel/Gasoil Exports of India By Ports In 2017

Diesel/Gasil Export of India By Ports in 2017 (In Million Barrels)

Port Name

Total Exports

Share in Total

Jamnagar (Sikka)

33.6

96,72%

Vadinar

1.14

3,28%

Total

34.7

100,00%

Source: Eikon

 

3.1.3 Netherlands

 

Figure 9: Refineries in Netherlands

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Figure 10: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Imports in 2017

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Figure 11: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Exports in 2017

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 


Table 13: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Imports by Ports in 2017

Dutch Diesel Imports by Ports 2017 (Million Barrels/day)

 

Total Imports

Share in Total

Rotterdam

40.80

52,79%

Amsterdam

34.25

44,33%

Vlissingen

1.80

2,32%

Terneuzen

0.36

0,46%

Moerdijk

0.051

0,07%

Dordrecht

0.020

0,03%

TOTAL

77.26

100,00%

Source: Eikon

 

Table 14: Netherlands Diesel/Gasoil Exports by Ports in 2017

Dutch Diesel Exports by Ports 2017 (Million Barrels/day)

 

Total Exports

Share in Total

Rotterdam

41.5

69,38%

Amsterdam

17.79

29,74%

Vlissingen

0.41

0,70%

Terneuzen

0.059

0,10%

Sluiskil

0.041

0,07%

Delfzijl

0.009

0,02%

TOTAL

59.81

100%

Source: Eikon

 


3.1.4 Turkey

 

Diesel suppliers to Turkey in 2017 is shown in below map. For the details, please check Appendix C.

 

Figure 12: Diesel Imports of Turkey in 2017

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon


 

Table 15: Russian Diesel Exports to Turkey by Ports in 2017

Russia Diesel Exports to Turkey by Ports in 2017

Port Name

Total Exports

Region

Novorossiysk

23.65

Black Sea

Tuapse

6.30

Black Sea

Kavkaz

1.15

Black Sea

Taman

0.75

Black Sea

Azov

0.18

Black Sea

Rostov-on-Don

0.05

Black Sea

Volgograd

0.04

Black Sea

    Total

32.14

Black Sea

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Table 16: Diesel/Gasoil Imported from Russia by Discharge Ports in 2017

Diesel/Gasoil Imported from Russia By Discharge Ports in 2017

Port Name (Turkey)

Total Imports

Share in Total

Marmara Ereğlisi

7.35

23%

Gebze

5.47

17%

Samsun

4.18

13%

Tutuncifilik

3.70

12%

Aliaga

2.95

9%

Trabzon

2.28

7%

Mersin

2.26

7%

Antalya

0.87

3%

Yarimca

0.65

2%

Toros Terminal (Ceyhan)

0.53

2%

Istanbul

0.46

1%

Iskenderun

0.38

1%

Dortyol Oil Terminal

0.33

1%

Izmit

0.30

1%

Diliskelesi

0.22

1%

Yalova

0.10

0%

İzmir

0.04

0%

Total

32.14

100%

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Table 17: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from India by Discharge Ports in 2017

Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from India By Discharge Ports in 2017

Port Name

Total Imports

Share in Total

Marmara Ereğlisi

8,13

62%

Mersin

4,97

38%

Total

13,10

100%

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Table 18: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from Greece by Discharge Ports in 2017

Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from Greece by Discharge Ports in 2017

Port Name

 Total Imports

Share in  Total

Mersin

1,65

25%

Aliaga

1,28

19%

Dortyol Oil Terminal

1,12

17%

Marmara Ereğlisi

0,69

10%

Nemrut Bay (Izmir satellite port)

0,45

7%

Gebze

0,36

5%

Tutuncifilik

0,35

5%

Izmit

0,34

5%

Iskenderun

0,20

3%

Antalya

0,10

1%

Istanbul

0,08

1%

Total

6,60

100%

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

 

Table 19: Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from Bulgaria by Discharge Ports in 2017

Diesel/Gasoil Imports of Turkey from Bulgaria by Discharge Ports in 2017

Port Name

 Total Imports

Share in Total

Marmara Ereğlisi

1,748

21%

Samsun

1,731

21%

Aliaga

1,061

13%

Trabzon

1,013

12%

Mersin

0,731

9%

Antalya

0,530

6%

Iskenderun

0,390

5%

Gebze

0,332